Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Tuesday May 9

May 9, 2023 01:59 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Tuesday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

You can also track the VSiN Betting Splits for every game.

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Tuesday's MLB slate...


6:35 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (-125, 8.5) at Baltimore Orioles

The Rays (29-7) took Monday night's series opener 3-0, cashing as -180 road favorites. In tonight's rematch, Tampa Bay hands the ball to righty Zach Eflin (4-0, 2.25 ERA) and the Orioles (22-13) counter with fellow righty Grayson Rodriguez (1-0, 5.46 ERA). This line opened with the Rays listed as a -115 road favorite and the Orioles a +105 home dog. Sharps have pounced on Tampa Bay laying the short chalk, steaming the Rays up from -115 to -125. The Rays are receiving 75% of bets but 88% of money, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Favorites off a win receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 69-40 (63%) this season. Road favorites who made the playoffs the previous season playing an opponent who did not are 62-36 (63%). Tampa Bay has the edge at the plate (hitting .275 vs .254) and on the mound (team ERA 2.93 vs 4.40). The Rays are 28-6 as a favorite, 23-6 against righties and 10-4 on the road. 


9;40 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners (-170, 7.5)

The Rangers (21-13) stole last night's series opener 2-1, cashing as +150 road dogs. In tonight's rematch, Texas starts lefty Andrew Heaney (2-2. 5.52 ERA) and the Mariners (17-18) trot out righty George Kirby (3-2, 3.11 ERA). This line opened with Seattle listed as a -160 home favorite and Texas a +145 road dog. Pros are banking on the Mariners to bounce back with a win, steaming Seattle up from -160 to -170. The Mariners are receiving 54% of bets but 62% of money, signaling slight public support but also heavy smart money. Seattle has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the better team. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 8 to 7.5. This drop is especially notable because 70% of bets are taking the over yet the line fell, signaling wiseguy reverse line movement on the under.

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