Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Tuesday May 23

May 23, 2023 01:36 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Tuesday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

You can also track the latest odds and percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Tuesday's MLB slate...


6:10 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians (-125, 8)

The Guardians (21-26) took Monday night's series opener 3-0, cashing as -120 home favorites. In tonight's rematch, the White Sox (19-30) turn to righty Dylan Cease (2-3, 4.78 ERA) and Cleveland counters with lefty Logan Allen (1-1, 3.04 ERA). This line opened with the Guardians listed as a -115 home favorite and the White Sox a +105 road dog. The public is split down the middle with 50% of bets on both sides. However, despite this even ticket count we've seen Cleveland move from -115 to -125. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the tickets are split. So we know based on the line move that pros are laying the short chalk with Cleveland at home. The Guardians have a big edge on the mound, sporting a team ERA of 3.83 compared to 4.96 for the White Sox. Cleveland also has the more rested bullpen, throwing just five innings over the past three games compared to 13 innings down for Chicago. The White Sox are just 7-22 as a dog, 7-17 on the road and 2-7 against lefties. Pros are also leaning over as the total is 8 with the over juiced to -115. The over is receiving 47% of bets but a whopping 86% of money, a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. 


8:40 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins (-125, 11.5) at Colorado Rockies

The Rockies (20-28) won last night's series opener 5-3, cashing as +100 home dogs. In tonight's rematch, the Marlins (24-24) start righty Eury Perez (1-0, 2.79 ERA) while Colorado sends out lefty Austin Gomber (3-4, 6.70 ERA). This line opened with Miami listed as a -120 road favorite and Colorado a +105 home dog. Sharps have pounced on the Marlins to bounce back with a win, driving Miami up from -120 to -125. Short non-division road favorites -150 or less are 70-44 (61%) this season. The Marlins are 11-7 as a favorite. The Rockies are 17-22 as a dog and 13-18 against righties. Miami also has the fresher bullpen, throwing 7.2 innings over the past three games compared to 13.2 for Colorado. Gomber is 1-2 with an 8.75 ERA at home. Sharps also hit the over, driving the total up from 11 to 11.5. The forecast calls for mid 70s with 5-10 MPH winds blowing out to dead center. The over is receiving 33% of bets but 47% of money, a sharp contrarian discrepancy. 

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