Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Tuesday July 4

July 4, 2023 06:42 AM

Happy 4th of July! 

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Tuesday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

You can also track the latest odds and percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Tuesday's MLB action...


1:10 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins (-165, 8.5)

The Marlins (49-37) took Monday night's series opener 5-4, cashing as -145 home favorites. In this early afternoon rematch, the Cardinals (35-49) hand the ball to righty Adam Wainwright (3-3, 7.45 ERA) and the Marlins counter with lefty Jesus Luzardo (6-5, 3.53 ERA). This line opened with Miami listed as a -145 home favorite and St. Louis a +130 road dog. Sharps have gotten down on the Marlins to make it two wins in a row, steaming Miami up from -145 to -165. The Marlins are receiving 73% of bets and 79% of money, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Non-division home favorites off a win receiving 5-cents of steam or more are 100-53 (65%) this season with a 5% ROI. Miami has the better bats (hitting .260 vs .252) and superior pitching (team ERA 4.07 vs .4.54). The Marlins are 26-12 as a favorite, 40-27 against righties and 26-16 at home. The Cardinals are 14-19 as a dog, 9-12 against lefties and 18-24 on the road. Luzardo has a 2.65 ERA in nine home starts. Wainwright has a 9.00 ERA in five June starts. Miami also has the better bullpen, with a +6 rating vs a 0 rating for St. Louis. 


7:10 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (-120, 9) at Cleveland Guardians

The Braves (57-27) won last night's Interleague series opener 4-2, taking care of business as -160 road favorites. In tonight's rematch, the Braves start lefty Kolby Allard (0-0, 0.00 ERA) and the Guardians (41-43) send out righty Shane Bieber (5-5, 3.48 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -110 road favorite and Cleveland a +100 home dog. Pros have pounced on the Braves laying a cheap chalk price, steaming Atlanta up from -110 to -120. The Braves are receiving 77% of bets and 89% of money, signaling both public and sharp support. Road Interleague favorites are 77-43 (64%) this season, producing a 9% ROI. Road Interleague favorites off a win are 49-19 (72%) with a 21% ROI. Atlanta has a big edge at the plate, hitting .271 vs .248 for Cleveland. The Braves are 50-23 as a favorite, 44-22 against righties and 27-12 ion the road. Atlanta has won nine straight and is now 17-1 over their last 18 games. Sharps are also leaning under, as the total is 9 with the under juiced to -120. Some shops are inching down to 8.5. The Guardians are 48-34 (59%) to the under, the second best under team in MLB behind the Padres. 

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