Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Tuesday July 25

July 25, 2023 06:42 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Tuesday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

You can also track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Tuesday's MLB slate...


6:40 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies (-125, 9.5)

The Orioles (62-38) took Monday night's Interleague series opener 3-2, cashing as +105 road dogs. In tonight's rematch, the Orioles hand the ball to righty Kyle Gibson (9-6, 4.76 ERA) and the Phillies (53-47) counter with fellow righty Taijuan Walker (11-4, 4.11 ERA). This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -135 home favorite and Baltimore a +120 road dog. Pros are once again grabbing the plus money with the Orioles, dropping Baltimore from +120 to +110. The Orioles are receiving roughly 60% of bets and dollars, signaling modest public support but also respected sharp action. Road dogs with a line move in their favor are 128-134 (49%) this season but have produced +29 units with an 11% ROI due to the plus money payouts. Baltimore also has correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (9.5), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities. The Orioles are the most profitable team in baseball (62-38, +19 units, 19% ROI), including 28-25 with +9 units won and a 17% ROI as a dog. Pros are also leaning under, as the total is 9.5 with the under juiced to -115, signaling a possible fall down to 9. 


8:10 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (-115, 9) at Chicago White Sox 

The Cubs (48-51) are 6-4 since the All Star Break and just swept the Cardinals, winning 7-2 on Sunday as +100 home dogs. Meanwhile, the White Sox (41-60) are 3-6 since the break and just got swept at the Twins, losing 5-4 on Sunday as +125 road dogs. In tonight's Interleague series opener, the Cubs go with righty Kyle Hendricks (3-4, 3.38 ERA) and the White Sox send out fellow righty Michael Kopech (4-8, 4.29 ERA). This line opened with the White Sox listed as high as a -120 home favorite and the Cubs a +110 road dog. Pros have gotten down hard on the Cubs, flipping the Cubs to a -115 road favorite. Essentially, the Cubs are receiving sharp "dog to favorite" line movement. The Cubs are receiving 67% of bets and 83% of money, a notable sharp bet discrepancy. Interleague road favorites are 54-29 (65%) this season with as 9% ROI. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 81-50 (62%) with a 3% ROI. The Cubs have the better bats (hitting .252 vs .239) and the better pitching (team ERA 4.12 vs 4.59). Kopech has a 7.11 ERA in two July starts. The Cubs are 6-2 in Hendricks' last eight starts. 

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