Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Tuesday July 18

July 18, 2023 06:43 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Tuesday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.

You can also track the latest odds and percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Tuesday's MLB slate...


7:07 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres (-115, 9.5) at Toronto Blue Jays 

The Padres (44-50) just got swept at the Phillies, losing Sunday's series finale 7-6 as +115 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays (53-41) just swept the Diamondbacks, winning 7-5 on Sunday as -185 home favorites. In tonight's Interleague series opener, San Diego starts righty Joe Musgrove (8-2, 3.29 ERA) and Toronto sends out fellow righty Alek Manoah (2-7, 5.91 ERA). This line opened with the Padres listed as a -110 road favorite and the Blue Jays a +100 home dog. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to take. However, despite this even ticket count we've seen the Padres creep up from -110 to -115. This signals smart money laying the short chalk with San Diego. Road Interleague favorites are 87-49 (64%) this season with a 9% ROI. When both teams are coming off a day off, which is the case here, the favorite is 77-46 (63%) with a 4% ROI. Manoah has an 8.68 ERA in seven starts at home this season. Pros also hit the over, raising the total from 9 to 9.5. The over is receiving 51% of bets but 79% of money, signaling an undecided public but also heavy sharp action. 


8:10 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers (-150, 8.5) at Kansas City Royals

The Tigers (42-51) took Monday night's series opener 3-2, cashing as -130 road favorites. In tonight's rematch, the Tigers hand the ball to lefty Tarik Skubal (0-0, 0.00 ERA) and the Royals (27-68) counter with fellow southpaw Daniel Lynch (2-4, 4.18 ERA). This line opened with Detroit listed as low as a -125 road favorite and Kansas City a +115 home dog. Pros are going back to the well with the Tigers, steaming Detroit up from -125 to -150. The Tigers are receiving roughly 70% of bets and dollars, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Sweet Spot short road favorites -120 to -150 are 143-78 (65%) with a 13% ROI this season. Detroit has a big edge on the mound, sporting a team ERA of 4.34 vs 5.23 for Kansas City. The Tigers also have the far better bullpen rating (+5 vs -20). The under 8.5 is receiving 59% of bets and 78% of money, a notable sharp bet split. The forecast calls for low 80s with 10 MPH winds blowing in from dead center. When two AL Central teams face off inside the division, the under is 41-26 (61%). 

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A Numbers Game: Be careful betting baseball games right now, if they don’t involve teams still trying to make the playoffs. Teams that have clinched or teams that are completely out of it will be approaching games far differently. View more tips.

Ian Cameron: USC at Colorado - OVER (73.5). View more picks.