Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Tuesday August 15

August 15, 2023 06:17 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Tuesday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.

You can also track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Tuesday's MLB slate...


7:05 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox (-170, 9) at Washington Nationals 

The Red Sox (62-56) just took two of three from the Tigers, winning Sunday's series finale 6-3 as -135 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Nationals (53-66) just swept the Athletics, winning 8-7 on Sunday as -145 home favorites. In tonight's Interleague series opener, the Red Sox hand the ball to righty Nick Pivetta (8-6, 4.16 ERA) and the Nationals counter with fellow righty Josiah Gray (7-9, 3.69 ERA). This line opened with Boston listed as a -155 road favorite and Washington a +140 home dog. Pros have laid the chalk with the Red Sox, steaming Boston up from -155 to -170. The Red Sox are receiving roughly 70% of bets and dollars, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 102-59 (63%) this season with a 5% ROI. Interleague road favorites off a win are 60-36 (63%) with a 5% ROI. AL East favorites playing teams outside the division are 185-103 (64%) with a 5% ROI. The Red Sox are 6-2 in Pivetta's last eight starts. Pivetta has a 3.61 ERA on the road compared to 4.58 at home. Gray has a 9.72 ERA in two August starts. Gray has a 5.17 ERA at home compared to 2.82 on the road. Boston also has the better bullpen rating (+5 vs -5).


8:05 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs (-170, 8.5) 

The White Sox (47-72) just got swept by the Brewers, losing Sunday's series finale 7-3 as +130 home dogs. On the flip side, the Cubs (61-57) just took two of three at the Blue Jays but lost 11-4 on Sunday as +100 road dogs. In tonight's Interleague series opener, the White Sox go with righty Touki Toussaint (1-5, 4.27 ERA) and the Cubs send out fellow righty Kyle Hendricks (4-6, 3.96 ERA). This line opened with the Cubs listed as a -160 home favorite and the White Sox a +135 road dog. Sharps have laid the chalk with the Cubs at home, steaming the Cubs up from -160 to -170. The Cubs are receiving 87% of bets and 93% of money, indicating lopsided support from both the public and sharp bettors. When both teams had the day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 102-59 (63%) with a 5% ROI. The Cubs have the better bats (hitting .255 vs .237) and superior pitching (team ERA 4.19 vs 4.59). The White Sox are 2-10 in Toussaint's twelve starts this season. Toussaint has a 6.97 ERA in two August starts. Toussaint has a 5.47 ERA on the road compared to 2.70 at home. The Cubs are 35-21 as a favorite and 32-28 at home. The White Sox are 28-54 as a dog and 22-39 on the road. The Cubs have a +8 bullpen rating compared to -12 for the White Sox. 

back to news

Live On Air

Streaming Now: A Numbers Game

play Watch Live radio Listen Live


Sharp Money: If you like an underdog of under a field goal, it is worth looking at the moneyline. Because of the plus price you don't have to win as many over time and it's closer to a coin flip than people think. View more tips.

Brad Powers: Ohio ST (-3) at Notre Dame, Saturday. View more picks.