Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves each day. For a full breakdown of Tuesday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Tuesday’s MLB slate…
6:40 p.m. ET: Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays (-165, 7.5)
The Rays (20-3) took Monday’s night’s series opener 8-3, cashing as -200 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Astros (12-11) start righty Luis Garcia (1-2, 5.14 ERA) and Tampa Bay counters with fellow righty Drew Rasmussen (3-1, 2.01 ERA). This line opened with the Rays listed as a -145 home favorite and the Astros a +135 road dog. Pros are riding the hot hand, steaming the Rays up from -145 to -165. Tampa Bay is receiving roughly 75% of bets and dollars, signaling a combination of sharp and public support. Non-division favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 63-33 (66%) this season. Non-division favorites off a win are 85-45 (65%). Tampa Bay also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the "better" team. The Rays are 20-2 as a favorite, 14-2 against righties and a perfect 14-0 at home. Tampa Bay also has the better offense (hitting .287 vs .252) and superior pitching (2.72 ERA vs 3.44 ERA).
6:40 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers (-150, 9.5) at Cincinnati Reds
The Reds (8-15) took last night’s Interleague series opener 7-6, cashing as +100 home dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Rangers (14-8) start lefty Martin Perez (3-1, 3.38 ERA) and Cincinnati rebuttals with righty Luke Weaver (0-1, 6.00 ERA). This line opened with Texas listed as a -125 road favorite and Cincinnati a +115 home dog. Sharps have pounced on the Rangers to bounce back at a modest chalk price, steaming Texas up from -125 to -150. The Rangers are receiving roughly 70% of bets and dollars, indicating a heavy mix of Pro and Joe support. Non-division road favorites are 62-26 (71%) this season. Interleague favorites are 55-34 (62%). Favorites who missed the postseason the previous season are 87-49 (64%). The Rangers are 9-5 as a favorite and 11-5 against righties. Texas will lean on their superior hitting (.264 vs .232) and better pitching (3.46 ERA vs 5.06 ERA). The Rangers are +59 in run differential. The Reds are -21.