Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Thursday May 4

May 4, 2023 02:45 AM


Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

You can also track the VSiN Betting Splits for every game.

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday's MLB slate...


1:10 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at Tampa Bay Rays (-185, 8.5)

The Rays (25-6) have taken the first two games of this Interleague series, winning the opener 4-1 as -160 home favorites and then winning again on Wednesday 8-1 as -210 home favorites. In this afternoon's series finale, the Pirates (20-11) turn to righty Vince Velasquez (4-2, 3.06 ERA) while Tampa Bay counters with fellow righty Zach Eflin (3-0, 3.00 ERA). This line opened with the Rays listed as a -170 home favorite and the Pirates a +145 road dog. Pros are banking on the red-hot Rays to complete the sweep, steaming Tampa Bay up from -170 to -185. The Rays are receiving roughly 75% of bets and dollars, signaling a combination of both public and sharp support. Non-division favorites off a win are 117-64 (65%) this season. Favorites off a win with steam 10-cents or more are 63-35 (64%). The Rays have the edge at the plate (hitting .280 vs .259) and on the mound (team ERA 2.96 vs 3.60). Tampa Bay is 24-5 as a favorite, 18-5 against righties and 16-2 at home. The Rays also have value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team. 


3:37 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners (-230, 8) at Oakland Athletics 

The Mariners (14-16) have won the first two games of this three-game set, taking the opener 2-1 as -125 road favorites and then winning again 7-2 yesterday as -180 road favorites. In this late afternoon series finale, Seattle taps righty George Kirby (2-2, 2.93 ERA) and the Athletics (6-25) rebuttal with fellow righty Drew Rucinski (0-1, 4.76 ERA). This line opened with the Mariners listed as a -190 road favorite and the Athletics a +175 home dog. Sharps aren't scared off by the expensive price and have steamed up Seattle from -190 to -230. The Mariners are receiving 85% of bets and 90% of money, a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Road favorites who made the playoffs the previous season playing an opponent who did not are 57-33 (63%) this season. Both teams are hitting roughly .220. The difference comes on the mound, with Seattle sporting a 3.45 team ERA compared to 7.45 for Oakland. The Athletics are 6-23 as a dog, 4-16 against righties and 3-14 at home. 

back to news

Related News

Live On Air

Streaming Now: Sharp Money

play Watch Live radio Listen Live


Mike Somich: 1H - Nuggets (-0.5) at Heat. View more picks.


A Numbers Game: If betting on college baseball, make sure you are familiar with the playoff format during each round. It does change from regionals to super regionals to CWS. View more tips.