Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Thursday May 25

May 25, 2023 01:52 AM


Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

You can also track the latest odds and percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday's MLB slate..


1:10 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays (-150, 8.5)

This is the fourth and final game of this four-game series. The Rays (36-15) have taken two of the first three games and just won 7-3 on Wednesday, cashing as -175 home favorites. In this early afternoon series finale, the Blue Jays (26-24) hand the ball to righty Alek Manoah (1-4, 5.15 ERA) and the Rays counter with fellow righty Zach Eflin (6-1, 3.45 ERA). This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -130 home favorite and Toronto a +115 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the Rays laying a modest chalk price at home, steaming Tampa Bay up from -130 to -150. The Rays are receiving 71% of bets and 87% of money, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Tampa Bay has the edge at the plate (hitting .271 vs .266) and on the mound (team ERA 3.70 vs 3.99). The Rays are 32-12 as a favorite, 23-5 at home and 28-13 against righties. Manoah has a 5.59 ERA in May and the Jays have lost all four of his starts this month. The total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -115, signaling some over liability. Tampa Bay 30-18 to the over this season. Both teams are 5-0 to the over their last five games. 


7:40 p.m. ET: New York Mets at Chicago Cubs (-115, 7)

The Cubs (22-26) have won the first two games of this three-game series, taking the opener 7-2 as -110 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 4-2 as -115 home favorites. In tonight's series finale, the Mets (25-25) tap righty Carlos Carrasco (0-2, 8.68 ERA) while Chicago counters with fellow righty Kyle Hendricks, who is making his season debut after being injured. This line opened with the Cubs listed as a short -110 home favorite and the Mets a +110 road dog. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know which side to take. However, despite these even bet percentages we've seen the Cubs creep up from -110 to -115, signaling pro money laying the short juice with Chicago at home. The Cubs have the better bats (hitting .262 vs .241) and the superior pitching (team ERA 4.08 vs 4.70). Chicago is 13-10 as a favorite and 13-11 at home. New York is 4-8 as a dog and 13-16 on the road. The Cubs have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the better team. Weather is a big reason why the total is so low, as the forecast calls for mid 50s with 10-15 MPH winds blowing directly in from center. 

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