Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Thursday May 18

May 18, 2023 01:09 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

You can also track the latest odds and percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday's MLB slate...


12:35 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles (-150, 9) 

This is the fourth and final game of this four-game series. The Angels (22-22) won the opener 9-5, cashing as -115 road favorites. Then the Orioles (28-15) won two straight, winning 7-3 as -150 favorites on Tuesday and winning again 3-1 on Wednesday as -155 home favorites. Baltimore is now 6-2 over their last eight games while the Angels are just 3-8 over their last eleven. In this early afternoon series finale, Los Angeles starts lefty Tyler Anderson (1-0, 5.26 ERA) and Baltimore counters with righty Tyler Wells (3-1, 2.68 ERA). This line opened with the Orioles listed as a -135 home favorite and the Angels a +125 road dog. Pros are riding the hot hand, steaming Baltimore up from -135 to -150. The Orioles are receiving 72% of bets but 88% of money, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Home favorites off a win receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 62-28 (69%) this season. Baltimore is 19-3 as a favorite, 12-5 against lefties and 15-7 at home. The Orioles are 6-2 Wells' eight starts this season. 


7:45 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (-150, 8.5) at St. Louis Cardinals

This is the opening game of a four-game set. The Dodgers (28-16) are 15-3 over their last 18 games and just took two of three at home against the Twins, winning 7-3 on Wednesday as -135 home favorites. Similarly, the Cardinals (18-26) are 8-2 over their last ten games and just took two of three at home against the Brewers, winning 3-0 yesterday as -115 home favorites. In tonight's series opener, Los Angeles hands the ball to lefty Julio Urias (5-3, 3.61 ERA) and St. Louis taps righty Adam Wainwright (0-0, 7.20 ERA). This line opened with the Dodgers listed as a -135 road favorite and the Cardinals a +125 home dog. Pros have pounced on Los Angeles laying the short chalk, steaming the Dodgers up from -135 to -150. Los Angeles is receiving 72% of bets and 76% of money, indicating lopsided action from both sharps and the betting public. Non-division road favorites are 102-67 (60%) this season. Non-division favorites off a win are 153-88 (64%). The Dodgers are 26-14 as a favorite, 20-10 against righties and 11-9 on the road. St. Louis is 7-11 as a dog, 5-6 against lefties and 8-14 at home. Urias has a 2.29 ERA in three May starts and the Dodgers are a perfect 3-0 in those games. Los Angeles is 3-0 against St. Louis this season. 

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