Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Thursday May 11

May 11, 2023 02:20 AM


Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

You can also track the VSiN Betting Splits for every game. 

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday's MLB slate...


1:10 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres (-120, 8) at Minnesota Twins

This is the rubber game of this Interleague series. The Padres (19-18) won the opener 6-1, cashing as -105 road dogs. Then the Twins (20-17) bounced back with a 4-3 win extras on Wednesday, taking care of business as -125 home favorites. In this early afternoon series finale, San Diego turns to righty Yu Darvish (2-2, 3.19 ERA) while Minnesota counters with fellow righty Bailey Ober (2-0, 0.98 ERA). This line opened with the Padres listed as a short -110 road favorite and the Twins a +100 home dog. Sharps have pounced on San Diego laying the cheap juice price, steaming the Padres up from -110 to -120. Road Interleague favorites are 35-20 (64%) this season. Road favorites who made the postseason the previous year playing an opponent who did not are 66-40 (62%). The Padres also have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the better team. San Diego has the edge at the plate (hitting .231 vs .220). The Twins are just 2-8 as a dog. 

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