Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
Top MLB Resources:
You can also track the latest odds and percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday’s MLB slate...
1:05 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks (-155, 8.5) at Washington Nationals
The Diamondbacks (37-25) have won two of the first three games in this series, taking the opener 10-5 as -135 road favorites and then winning again on Wednesday 6-2 as -120 road favorites. In this early afternoon series finale, Arizona starts righty Merrill Kelly (7-3, 2.80 ERA) and the Nationals (25-36) counter with fellow righty Josiah Gray (4-5, 3.09 ERA). This line opened with the Diamondbacks listed as a -145 road favorite and the Nationals a +130 road dog. Sharps are banking on the Snakes to complete the sweep, steaming Arizona up from -145 to -155. The Snakes are receiving 79% of bets and 89% of money, signaling both heavy public and sharp support. Non-division road favorites off a win are 70-44 (61%) this season. Arizona is 19-9 as a favorite, 26-15 against righties and 17-11 on the road. Washington is 23-35 as a dog, 17-21 against righties and 12-21 at home. Arizona is 6-1 in Kelly’s last seven starts. Kelly is 4-0 on the road with a 1.63 ERA. The Diamondbacks are 8-2 over their last ten games. The Nats are 2-7 over their last nine.
7:20 p.m. ET: New York Mets at Atlanta Braves (-165, 8.5)
The Braves (37-24) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 6-4 as -165 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 7-5 as -125 home favorites. In tonight’s series finale, the Mets (30-32) turn to righty Justin Verlander (2-3, 4.25 ERA) and the Braves counter with fellow righty Spencer Strider (6-2, 2.97 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -160 home favorite and New York a +145 road dog. Sharps are going back to the well with the Braves, steaming Atlanta up from -160 to -165. Some shops are even inching toward -175. Home favorites off a win receiving 5-cents of steam or more are 103-48 (68%) this season, producing a 10% ROI. The Braves have the edge at the plate (hitting .261 vs .238) and on the mound (team ERA 3.68 vs 4.58). Atlanta is 31-20 as a favorite and 17-14 at home. New York is just 5-11 as a dog and 15-20 on the road. The total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -115, signaling some over liability. The forecast calls for high 70s with wind blowing out to center at 5-10 MPH. The over is 2-0 so far this series.