Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Thursday July 6

July 6, 2023 03:41 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.

You can also track the latest odds and percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday's MLB action...


7:05 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (-120, 8.5) at New York Yankees

This is the fourth and final game of this AL East series. After dropping the first two matchups, the Orioles (50-35) won 6-3 on Wednesday, cashing as -105 road dogs. In tonight's series finale, the Orioles hand the ball to righty Kyle Bradish (4-4, 3.58 ERA) and the Yankees (48-39) counter with fellow righty Luis Severino (1-3, 6.30 ERA). This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -115 road favorite and New York a +105 home dog. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to take. However, despite this even bet count we've seen the Orioles creep up from -115 to -120. This signals smart money laying the short chalk with Baltimore. The Orioles have the better bats, hitting .250 compared to .232 for the Yankees. Baltimore also has the far-fresher bullpen, tossing 6 innings over the past three games compared to 12.2 innings for New York. Baltimore is 28-12 as a favorite, 32-25 against righties and 24-17 on the road. Pros have also leaned under, as the total has dipped from 9 to 8.5 at most shops. The Yankees are 46-37 (55%) to the under this season, the 7th-best under team in MLB. 


9:40 p.m. ET: New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks (-130, 10) 

The Mets (40-46) have the won the first two games of this three-game set, taking the opener 8-5 as -150 road favorites and then winning against last night 2-1 as -115 road favorites. In tonight's series finale, the Mets go with righty Carlos Carrasco (2-3, 5.94 ERA) and the Diamondbacks (50-37) send out fellow righty Ryne Nelson (5-4, 4.67 ERA). This line opened with Arizona listed as a -120 home favorite and New York a +110 road dog. Pros have gotten down on the Diamondbacks to avoid the sweep, steaming Arizona up from -120 to -130. The Diamondbacks are receiving 64% of bets but 73% of money, signaling modest public support but also respected sharp action. Non-division home favorites receiving 5-cents of steam or more are 177-111 (62%) this season. The Snakes have the advantage at the plate, hitting .260 versus .239 for the Mets. The Diamondbacks are 26-12 as a favorite. The Mets are just 7-19 as a dog. Carrasco posted a 6.23 ERA in June. The Mets went 0-6 in Carrasco's six June starts. Sharps are also leaning over, as the total is 10 with the over juiced to -115. 

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