Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Thursday July 27

July 27, 2023 07:18 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.

You can also track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday's MLB slate...


1:10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels (-150, 8) at Detroit Tigers

This is the first game of a doubleheader after last night's matchup was rained out. The Angels (52-39) won Tuesday's series opener 7-6 in extra innings, cashing as +110 road dogs. In today's rematch, the Angels hand the ball to star righty Shohei Ohtani (8-5, 3.71 ERA) and the Tigers (46-55) counter with fellow righty Michael Lorenzen (5-6, 3.49 ERA). This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -145 road favorite and Detroit a +130 home dog. Pros have laid the chalk with the Angels, steaming Los Angeles up from -145 to -150. The Angels are receiving 80% of bets and 81% of money, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Sweet spot short road favorites -120 to -150 are 152-92 (62%) with a 9% ROI this season. Non-division road favorites off a win are 128-81 (61%) with a 4% ROI. When both teams had the day off the previous day, as is the case here, the favorite is 84-51 (62%) with a 3% ROI. The Angels also have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team. The Angels also enjoy a noticeable edge at the plate, hitting .256 vs .232. 


8:10 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox (-115, 8.5)

The Guardians (51-51) just took two of three against the Royals, winning yesterday's series finale 8-3 as -200 home favorites. On the flip side, the White Sox (41-62) just dropped a two game series against the Cubs, losing 10-7 yesterday as +105 home dogs. In tonight's series opener, the Guardians send out righty Tyler Bibee (6-2, 3.04 ERA) and the White Sox go with fellow righty Dylan Cease (4-3, 4.04 ERA). This line opened with Chicago listed as a -120 home favorite and Cleveland a +105 road dog. We've seen this line fall away from the White Sox (-120 to -115) and toward the Guardians (+105 to +100), signaling pro money backing road dog Cleveland. The Guardians are receiving 69% of bets and 83% of money, signaling modest public support but also heavy sharp action. Road dogs with a line move in their favor are 131-135 (49%) but have produced a 12% ROI due to the plus money payouts. Cleveland also has value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and leading to more upset opportunities. Pros are also leaning under, as the total is 8.5 with the under juiced to -120, signaling a possible fall down to 8. When two AL Central teams face off, the under is 46-30 (61%) this season. The under is receiving 62% of bets and 85% of money, a sharp discrepancy. Bibee has a 1.14 ERA in four July starts. Cleveland has a far better bullpen rating as well (+8 vs -7). Chicago is just 3-8 since the All Star Break. 

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