Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Thursday August 17

August 17, 2023 06:46 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.

You can also track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday's MLB slate...


2:10 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners (-223, 9) at Kansas City Royals

This is the fourth and final game of a four-game series. The Royals (39-83) won Monday's opener 7-6, cashing as +125 home dogs. Then the Mariners (65-55) won the next two games, posting a 10-8 win on Tuesday as -145 road favorites and then winning again yesterday 6-5 as -200 road favorites. In this afternoon's series finale, the Mariners hand the ball to righty George Kirby (10-8, 3.11 ERA) and the Royals go with lefty Angel Zerpa (1-1, 7.71 ERA). This line opened with Seattle listed as a -210 road favorite and Kansas City a +190 home dog. Pros aren't scared off by the expensive price and have laid the juice with Seattle, steaming the Mariners up from -210 to -225. Seattle is receiving 81% of bets and 87% of money, indicating both public and sharp support. The Mariners have value as a non-division road favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team. Non-division road favorites off a win are 451-300 (60%) over the past three seasons. Both teams are hitting roughly .240. The difference comes on the mound, with Seattle sporting a 3.73 team ERA compared to 5.20 for Kansas City. Kirby has a 0.56 ERA in two August starts. The Mariners are 17-12 against lefties and 16-12 as a road favorite. Pros are also leaning over, as the total is 9 with the over juiced to -115. 


10:10 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers (-145, 8) 

The Dodgers (73-46) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 6-2 as -230 home favorites and then winning again last night 7-1 as -240 home favorites. In tonight's series finale, the Brewers (65-56) start righty Corbin Burnes (9-6, 3.60 ERA) and the Dodgers counter with fellow righty Lance Lynn (9-9, 5.88 ERA). This line opened with the Dodgers listed as a -135 home favorite and the Brewers a +120 road dog. Pros have pounced on Los Angeles laying a short chalk price at home, steaming the Dodgers up from -135 to -145. Los Angeles is receiving more than 70% of bets and dollars, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. When the Dodgers are a short favorite of -110 to -150 they have gone 27-14 (66%) with a 16% ROI. Los Angeles has the better bats (hitting .253 vs .232) and are 14-1 over their last 15 games. Lynn is 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA since being acquired by the Dodgers at the Trade Deadline. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 8.5 to 8. 


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