Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Thursday August 10

August 10, 2023 05:44 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.

You can also track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday's MLB slate...


1:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins (-150, 8.5) at Detroit Tigers

This is the fourth and final game of a four-game series. The Twins (60-56) won the opener 9-3, taking care of business as -150 road favorites. Then the Tigers (51-63) bounced back with a pair of victories, winning 6-0 as -105 home dogs and winning again 9-5 yesterday as +130 home dogs. In today's early afternoon series finale, Minnesota hands the ball to righty Kenta Maeda (3-6, 4.22 ERA) and Detroit counters with fellow righty Reese Olson (1-5, 4.94 ERA). This line opened with the Twins listed as a -140 road favorite and the Tigers a +125 home dog. Pros have laid the chalk with Minnesota to earn a series split, steaming the Twins up from -140 to -150. Minnesota is receiving 68% of bets but 87% of money, a notable "low bets, higher dollars" sharp money discrepancy. Sweet spot short road favorites -120 to -150 are 168-105 (62%) this season with a 7% ROI. The Twins have the edge at the plate (hitting .238 vs .235) and on the mound (team ERA 3.87 vs 4.51). Minnesota is 5-1 in Maeda's last six starts. Maeda has a 3.16 ERA on the road (compared to 5.40 at home). The Tigers are 0-6 in Olson's last six starts. Olson has a 5.68 ERA at home (compared to 3.91 on the road). Pros are also leaning over, as the total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -115, signaling a possible rise up to 9. The forecast calls for mid 80s with 10 MPH winds blowing out to left center. 


1:10 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays (-135, 9.5) at Cleveland Guardians

The Blue Jays (65-51) have taken two of the first three games in this four-game series, winning 1-0 last night as -170 road favorites. In today's series finale, the Jays start righty Alek Manoah (3-8, 5.72 ERA) and the Guardians (55-60) go with fellow righty Noah Syndergaard (1-5, 6.75 ERA). This line opened with Toronto listed as a -130 road favorite and Cleveland a +120 home dog. Sharps have jumped on the Blue Jays laying a cheap chalk price, driving Toronto up from -130 to -135. The Jays are receiving 69% of bets and 76% of money, signaling modest public support but also heavy sharp action. Short road favorites -120 to -140 are 116-74 (61%) this season with an 8% ROI. AL East favorites playing AL Central foes are 70-25 (74%) with a 19% ROI. Toronto is 23-15 (61%) as a road favorite this season. The Jays have the edge at the plate, hitting .260 vs .249 for Cleveland. After struggling much for much of the season, Manoah has given up three earned runs or less in 4 of his last 5 starts. The total is 9.5 with some shops juicing the under to -115, signaling some under liability and a possible dip down to 9. 

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A Numbers Game: Be careful betting baseball games right now, if they don’t involve teams still trying to make the playoffs. Teams that have clinched or teams that are completely out of it will be approaching games far differently. View more tips.

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