Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Thursday April 27

April 27, 2023 02:36 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

You can also track the VSiN Betting Splits for every game. 

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday's MLB slate...


3:45 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants (-145, 8.5)

The Giants (11-13) have taken the first three games of this four-game series, winning 7-3 Wednesday night as -110 home favorites. In this late afternoon series finale, the Cardinals (9-16) hand the ball to righty Miles Mikolas (0-1, 7.46 ERA) while the Giants counter with fellow righty Logan Webb (1-4, 4.40 ERA). This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -135 home favorite and St. Louis a +115 road dog. Pros have laid the chalk with the Giants to complete the sweep, steaming San Francisco up from -135 to -145. The public is relatively split, with roughly 50% of bets on both sides. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the tickets are even. So we know this movement was caused by wiseguys backing San Francisco. Non-division favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 67-41 (62%) this season. Non-division favorites off a win are 90-50 (64%). Favorites who missed the playoffs the previous season are 95-54 (64%). The Cardinals are 6-14 against righties, 1-7 as a dog and 4-8 on the road. 


6:40 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (-150, 8) at Detroit Tigers

The Orioles (16-8) are 8-1 in their last nine games and just took two of three at home against the Red Sox, winning 6-2 yesterday as -125 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Tigers (9-14) just took two of three on the road at Milwaukee but fell 6-2 yesterday as +170 road dogs. In tonight's series opener, the Orioles start righty Kyle Gibson (4-0, 3.60 ERA) and the Tigers rebuttal with lefty Joey Wentz (0-3, 7.56 ERA). This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -135 road favorite and Detroit a +115 road dog. Pros have pounced on Baltimore at a modest chalk price, steaming the Orioles up from -135 to -150. Baltimore is receiving 83% of bets but 96% of money, signaling a heavy combination of Pro and Joe support. Non-division road favorites are 65-31 (68%) this season. Baltimore has a big edge at the plate (hitting .253 vs .216 for Detroit). The Orioles also have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the better team. Baltimore is 10-2 as a favorite and 7-3 against lefties. Detroit is 9-14 as a dog and 6-11 against righties. Baltimore is 3-0 against Detroit so far this season. 


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