Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Sunday May 21

May 21, 2023 02:15 AM


Today the weekend wraps up with 16 MLB games. You can track the latest odds and percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for today's MLB slate...


1:35 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers at Washington Nationals (-130, 8.5) 

These Interleague foes have split the first two games of this three-game series. The Tigers (20-23) won the opener 8-6 as -110 road favorites. Then the Nationals (19-27) bounced back with a 5-2 on Saturday, cashing as -120 home favorites. In today's early afternoon rubber match, Detroit hands the ball to lefty Joey Wentz (1-3, 6.38 ERA) and Washington counters with righty Josiah Gray (3-5, 2.73 ERA). This line opened with the Nats listed as a -125 home favorite and the Tigers a +115 road dog. Pros have laid the short chalk with Washington at home, driving the Nats up from -125 to -130. Washington is receiving 61% of bets but 86% of money, a sharp "low bets, higher dollars" bet discrepancy in their favor. Home favorites off a win receiving 5-cents of steam or more are 82-34 (71%) this season. The Nats have the edge at the plate, hitting .259 compared to .228 for the Tigers. Pros have also leaned over, as the total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -120, signaling a possible rise up to 9. 


2:35 p.m. ET: Colorado Rockies at Texas Rangers (-210, 9) 

The Rangers (28-17) have taken the first two games of this three-game set, winning the opener 7-2 as -220 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 11-5 as -200 home favorites. In this afternoon's series finale, the Rockies (19-27) tap righty Connor Seabold (1-0, 5.14 ERA) and Texas turns to lefty Andrew Heaney (2-3, 4.71 ERA). This line opened with Texas listed as a -200 home favorite and Colorado a +185 road dog. Pros seem to be saying "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" and have steamed Texas up from -200 to -210. Texas is receiving roughly 90% of bets and dollars, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Interleague favorites off a win are 65-35 (65%) this season. The Rangers have the better bats (hitting .270 vs .258) and the better pitching (team ERA 3.85 vs 4.80). Texas also has the fresher bullpen, throwing 8 innings over the last three games compared to 14.1 innings for Colorado. The Rangers are 16-8 as a favorite, 19-12 against righties and 15-8 at home. The Rockies are 16-21 as a dog, 7-9 against lefties and 9-15 on the road. The total is 9 with the over juiced to -115, signaling some over liability and a possible rise up to 9.5. The over is 15-7 at Globe Life Field. The Rangers are 27-16 to the over, one of the best over teams in MLB. 

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