Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Sunday July 9

July 9, 2023 08:36 AM

Today the weekend wraps up with a loaded slate of 14 MLB games. You can track the latest odds and percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Sunday's MLB slate.


1:40 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins (-120, 7)

This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Phillies (48-40) won the opener 4-3 as -135 road favorites. Then the Marlins (52-39) won Saturday's rematch 5-3 as -115 home favorites. In today's series finale, Philadelphia hands the ball to righty Aaron Nola (8-5, 4.30 ERA) and Miami counters with lefty Jesus Luzardo (7-5, 3.32 ERA). This line opened with the Marlins listed as a short -115 home favorite and the Phillies a -105 road dog. The public is all over Philadelphia. However, despite 67% of bets taking the Phillies we've actually seen the line move further to the Marlins -115 to -120. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Miami, with pros fading the trendy dog and backing the contrarian home favorite. The Marlins also have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7) with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team. Miami is 29-13 as a favorite, 41-29 and 29-18 at home. Luzardo has a 2.39 ERA in ten starts. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 7.5 to 7. The under is receiving 39% of bets but 57% of dollars, a sharp bet discrepancy. The Phillies are 46-33 (58%) to the under this season, the third best under team in MLB.


2:10 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners (-130, 8) at Houston Astros

This the fourth and final game of a four-game set. The Mariners (44-44) won the first two games, taking the opener 5-1 as -140 road favorites and then winning again on Friday 10-1 as -105 road dogs. The Astros (50-40) bounced back with a 3-2 win on Saturday, cashing as -135 home favorites. In today's series finale, Seattle starts righty Logan Gilbert (6-5, 3.82 ERA) and Houston taps fellow righty Brandon Bielak (4-4, 3.81 ERA). This line opened with the Mariners listed as a -120 road favorite and the Astros a +105 home dog. Despite 64% of bets taking the Astros at home, we've seen this line creep up slightly toward the Mariners. This signals smart money laying the chalk with Seattle on the road. Sweet spot short road favorites between -120 and -150 are 133-77 (63%) this season with an 11% ROI. The Mariners also have the far fresher bullpen, tossing 6.1 innings over the past three games compared to 12 innings for the Astros. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 8.5 to 8. The Astros are 6-3 to the under in their last nine games. The Mariners are 4-1 to the under in their last five games. Gilbert has a 3.29 ERA on the road compared to 4.29 at home.

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A Numbers Game: Be careful betting baseball games right now, if they don’t involve teams still trying to make the playoffs. Teams that have clinched or teams that are completely out of it will be approaching games far differently. View more tips.

Ian Cameron: USC at Colorado - OVER (73.5). View more picks.