Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Sunday July 2

July 2, 2023 02:06 AM

Today the weekend wraps up with a loaded slate of 15 MLB games. You can track the latest odds and percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Sunday's MLB action...


12:05 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins (-115, 9) at Baltimore Orioles

The Twins (42-42) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 8-1 as -105 road dogs and then winning again yesterday 1-0 as +125 road dogs. In this early afternoon series finale, the Twins hand the ball to righty Sonny Gray (4-2, 2.67 ERA) and the Orioles (48-33) counter lefty Cole Irvin (1-3, 7.18 ERA). This line opened at a pick'em with both sides listed at roughly -105. The public is split down the middle with 50% of bets on both sides. However, despite this even bet split we've seen Minnesota move from -105 to -115. This signals smart money backing the Twins to complete the sweep. Non-division road favorites off a win are 99-59 (63%) this season with as 5% ROI. Minnesota is 31-20 as a favorite. Baltimore is 18-20 as a dog. The Twins also have the far fresher bullpen, tossing 9 innings over the past 3 games compared to 14.1 innings for the Orioles. Pros have also hit the over, raising the total from 8.5 to 9. The over is receiving 54% of bets but 64% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy. The forecast calls for mid 80s with 5-10 MPH winds blowing out to center. Baltimore is 7-3 to the over in their last ten games. 


2:35 p.m. ET: Houston Astros at Texas Rangers (-135, 9) 

This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Astros (45-38) took the opener 5-3, cashing as +150 road dogs. Then the Rangers (50-33) bounced back with a 5-2 win yesterday, taking care of business as -130 home favorites. In today's series finale, Houston starts righty Shawn Dubin (0-0, 10.80 ERA) and Texas goes with lefty Andrew Heaney (5-5, 4.38 ERA). This line opened with Astros listed as a -125 road favorite and the Rangers a +115 home dog. Pros have gotten down hard Texas, driving the Rangers all the way to -135. This signals sharp "dog to favorite" line movement on Texas. The Rangers are receiving 65% of bets and 82% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy. Home favorites off a win receiving 5-cents of steam or more are 122-67 (65%) this season. Texas has a big edge at the plate, hitting .275 compared to .247 for Houston. Sharps have also leaned over, as the total is 9 with the over juiced to -115, signaling a possible rise up to 9.5. The over is receiving 56% of bets and 75% of money, a notable sharp discrepancy. The over is 25-15 (63%) at Globe Life Park. 

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