Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Sunday August 20

August 20, 2023 07:45 AM

Today the weekend wraps up with a loaded slate of 12 MLB games. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Sunday's MLB slate...


1:35 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees (-115, 9) 

The Red Sox (65-58) have dominated the first two games of this AL East series, winning Friday night's opener 8-3 as -130 road favorites and then winning again on Saturday 8-1 as +140 road dogs. In this early afternoon series finale, the Red Sox start righty Josh Winckowski (3-1, 3.20 ERA) and the Yankees (60-63) tap fellow righty Clarke Schmidt (8-7, 4.76 ERA). This line opened with the Yankees listed as a -120 home favorite and the Red Sox a +100 road dog. Sharps have jumped on the Red Sox, moving Boston from +100 to -105. Essentially, this game is moving toward a pick'em after opening with New York as the favorite. Boston is receiving 67% of bets and 68% of money, indicating both public and sharp support. Road dogs with a line move in their favor are 161-173 (48%) this season but have produced a 9% ROI due to the plus-money payouts. When two AL East teams face off, the dog is 48-40 (55%) producing a 20% ROI. Boston has value as a dog in a high total game (9), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities. Boston has the better bats (hitting .262 vs .230). New York has lost seven straight and is now just 2-10 over their last 12 games. Schmidt has a 7.82 ERA in three August starts. 


4:07 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (-190, 8) at Oakland Athletics

The Orioles (76-47) have taken the first two games of this three-game set, winning the opener 9-4 as -210 road favorites and then winning again yesterday 7-2 as -180 road favorites. In this late afternoon series finale, the Orioles hand the ball to righty Kyle Bradish (7-6, 3.18 ERA) and the Athletics (34-89) counter with lefty JP Sears (2-9, 4.27 ERA). This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -185 road favorite and Oakland a +160 home dog. Pros are banking on the Orioles to complete the sweep, driving Baltimore up from -185 to -190. Some shops are inching closer to -200. The Orioles are receiving 91% of bets and 97% of money, signaling a heavy overload of both Pro and Joe support. AL East favorites playing teams outside the division are 190-107 (64%) this season. Baltimore is 40-16 (71%) as a favorite and 26-13 (67%) against lefties. The Orioles have value as a favorite in a low total game (8), as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the better team. Baltimore has the better bats (hitting .252 vs .224) and superior pitching (team ERA 4.10 vs 5.76). Bradish has a 2.55 ERA in three August starts. Baltimore is 3-0 in those games. Sears has a 5.79 ERA in three August starts. Oakland is 0-3 in those games. 

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