Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Sunday August 13

August 13, 2023 08:21 AM

Today the weekend wraps up with a loaded slate of 15 MLB games. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Sunday's MLB slate...


1:35 p.m. ET: Oakland Athletics are Washington Nationals (-135, 9.5)

The Nationals (52-66) have taken the first two games of this three-game Interleague series, winning Friday's opener 8-2 as -120 home favorites and then winning again on Saturday 3-2 as -145 home favorites. In this early afternoon series finale, the Athletics start lefty Ken Waldichuk (2-7, 6.30 ERA) and the Nationals trot out righty Trevor Williams (5-7, 5.00 ERA). This line opened with the Nationals listed as a -125 home favorite and the Athletics a +105 road dog. Pros have laid the short chalk with Washington, steaming the Nats up from -125 to -135. The Nats are receiving 75% of bets and 80% of money, indicating both Pro and Joe support. Interleague favorites off a win are 174-103 (63%) this season with a 4% ROI. Home favorites off a win with steam 5-cents or more are 161-97 (62%) with a 3% ROI. The Nats have the better bats (hitting .259 vs .221) and superior pitching (team ERA 4.86 vs 5.78). Oakland has the worst bullpen rating (-27) in MLB. The Athletics are 33-83 as a dog, 24-60 against righties and 15-43 on the road, the worst road record in MLB. Oakland is also 3-16 on Sundays, worst in MLB. Waldichuk has a 7.84 ERA on the road (compared to 4.60 at home). 


2:10 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (-135, 8) at Chicago White Sox

The Brewers (64-54) have taken the first two games of this three-game Interleague series, winning the opener 7-6 as -180 road favorites and then winning again yesterday 3-2 as -175 road favorites. In today's series finale, the Brewers hand the ball to righty Freddy Peralta (8-8, 4.28 ERA) and the White Sox (47-71) counter with fellow righty Dylan Cease (5-5, 4.42 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -120 road favorite and Chicago a +100 home dog. Sharps are taking the Brewers to complete the sweep, steaming Milwaukee up from -120 to -135. The Brewers are receiving 65% of bets and 67% of money, signaling both public and sharp action in their favor. Sweet spot short road favorites -120 to -150 are 170-108 (61%) this season with a 7% ROI. Interleague favorites off a win are 174-103 (63%) with a 4% ROI. The Brewers also have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team. The Brewers are 5-1 in Peralta's last six starts. Milwaukee is 37-26 as a favorite, 31-27 on the road and 49-36 against righties. Chicago is 28-53 as a dog, 25-32 at home and 33-55 against righties. Milwaukee also enjoys a far better bullpen ratings (+13 vs -10). 

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