Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Saturday May 6

May 6, 2023 03:10 AM

Today with the weekend begins with a loaded slate of 15 MLB games. You can track the latest odds and percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine a pair of MLB matchups receiving sharp action from respected bettors today...


6:35 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays (-130, 9) at Pittsburgh Pirates

The Blue Jays (19-14) took Friday night's Interleague series opener 4-0, taking care of business as -165 road favorites. In tonight's rematch, Toronto sends out righty Jose Berrios (2-3, 5.29 ERA) and the Pirates (20-13) rebuttal with fellow righty Johan Oviedo (2-2, 4.78 ERA). This line opened with the Jays listed as a -145 road favorite and the Pirates a +130 home dog. The public is laying the chalk with Toronto. However, despite receiving 65% of bets the Jays have fallen from -145 to -130. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Pittsburgh, with pros taking the plus money and dropping the Pirates from +130 to +120. The Pirates are only receiving 35% of bets but 70% of money, a notable sharp contrarian bet discrepancy in their favor. Pittsburgh also has correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (9), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities. 


7:15 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants (-170, 8.5)

The Giants (14-17) took last night's series opener 6-4, cashing as +105 home dogs. In tonight's rematch, the Brewers (18-14) start righty Colin Rea (0-2, 4.79 ERA) while San Francisco counters with fellow righty Alex Cobb (1-1, 2.43 ERA). This line opened with the Giants listed as a -155 home favorite and the Brewers a +135 road dog. Sharps have laid the chalk with the Giants, steaming San Francisco up from -155 to -170. The Giants match several profitable betting systems. Favorites who missed the playoffs the previous year are 125-78 (62%). Favorites off a win receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 64-36 (64%). Non-division favorites off a win are 119-65 (65%). The total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -115, signaling a possible rise up to 9. The forecast calls for high 50s with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to dead center. David Rackley, the home plate ump, has historically favored home teams (59%) and overs (56%). 

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