Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Saturday July 22

July 22, 2023 07:25 AM

Today the weekend kicks off with a loaded slate of 15 MLB games. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our recently revamped VSiN Bet Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Saturday's MLB slate...


7:05 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants (-185, 8.5) at Washington Nationals

The Nationals (29-58) took Friday night's series opener 5-3, cashing as +145 home dogs. In tonight's rematch, the Giants (54-44) hand the ball to righty Logan Webb (8-7, 3.11 ERA) and the Nationals counter with fellow righty Josiah Gray (6-8, 3.59 ERA). This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -175 road favorite and Washington a +160 home dog. Sharps like the Giants in a bounce back spot, steaming San Francisco up from -175 to -185. The Giants are receiving 79% of bets and 82% of money, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Non-division road favorites facing teams who missed the postseason the previous year are 194-125 (61%) this season with a 3% ROI. The Giants are 28-22 on the road. The Nats are just 16-32 at home. Webb has a 1.59 ERA in three July starts. Gray has a 6.30 ERA in three July starts. Pros are also leaning over, as the total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -120, signaling a possible rise up to 9. The Giants have a big edge in the bullpen, boasting a +15 rating vs -25 for the Nats. 


7:10 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (-120, 8) at Cleveland Guardians 

The Guardians (48-49) won last night's Interleague series opener 6-5, cashing as +105 home dogs. In tonight's rematch, the Phillies (52-45) start righty Zack Wheeler (7-4, 4.04 ERA) and the Guardians go with fellow righty Tanner Bibee (5-2, 3.32 ERA). This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -115 road favorite and Cleveland a -105 home dog. Sharps have pounced on the Phillies laying a short chalk price, driving Philadelphia up from -115 to -120. The Phillies are receiving 66% of bets but 78% of money, signaling modest public support but also heavy sharp action. Sweet spot short road favorites -120 to -150 are 148-83 (64%) with a 12% ROI this season. Interleague road favorites are 90-54 (63%) with a 6% ROI. The Phillies are 7-0 in Wheeler's last seven starts. Pros are also leaning under, as some shops have fallen from 8.5 to 8. The under is receiving 28% of bets but 68% of money, a massive sharp contrarian bet split. 

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A Numbers Game: Be careful betting baseball games right now, if they don’t involve teams still trying to make the playoffs. Teams that have clinched or teams that are completely out of it will be approaching games far differently. View more tips.

Ian Cameron: USC at Colorado - OVER (73.5). View more picks.