Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Saturday July 15

July 15, 2023 09:02 AM

Today the weekend kicks off with a loaded slate of 17 MLB games. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for today's MLB slate...


4:05 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians at Texas Rangers (-155, 9)

The Rangers (53-39) took Friday night's series opener 12-4, cruising as -140 home favorites. In today's late afternoon rematch, the Guardians (45-46) turn to righty Gavin Williams (1-1, 4.01 ERA) and the Rangers counter with lefty Andrew Heaney (5-6, 4.71 ERA). This line opened with Texas listed as a -145 home favorite and Cleveland a +130 road dog. Sharps are riding the hot hand, steaming the Rangers up from -145 to -155. Non-division home favorites off a win receiving 5-cents of steam or more are 106-59 (64%) this season. The Rangers have a big edge at the plate, hitting .275 vs .250 for the Guardians. Texas is 34-25 as a favorite, 36-29 against righties and 28-18 at home. Cleveland is 16-20 as a dog, 16-17 against lefties and 21-24 on the road. Pros are also leaning under, as the total is 9 with the under juiced to -115, signaling a possible drop down to 8.5. The under is receiving 40% of bets but 50% of money, a sharp contrarian bet split. The Guardians are 52-37 (58%) to the under, the second best under team in MLB behind the Padres. 


9:07 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (-145, 8) at Los Angeles Angels

The Astros (51-41) won last night's series opener 7-5, cashing as a +130 road dog. In tonight's rematch, the Astros start lefty Framber Valdez (7-6, 2.51 ERA) and the Angels (45-47) go with fellow southpaw Reid Detmers (2-6, 4.31 ERA). This line opened with Houston listed as a -125 road favorite and Los Angeles a +110 home dog. Pros have pounced on the Astros laying a short chalk price, steaming Houston up from -125 to -145. The Astros are receiving 78% of bets and 82% of money, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Houston has a big advantage on the mound, sporting a team ERA of 3.65 compared to 4.44 for Los Angeles. The Astros are 33-26 as a favorite and 15-9 against lefties. The Angels are 18-21 as a dog and just 8-17 against lefties. Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 8.5 to 8 despite nearly 70% of bets taking the over. Cory Blaser, the home plate ump, is 55% to the under historically. The Astros are 7-3 to the under in their last ten games. Houston is 8-2 in Valdez's last 10 starts. 

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