Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Saturday April 29

April 29, 2023 02:46 AM

Today the weekend kicks off with a loaded slate of 15 MLB games. Be sure to check out the VSiN Betting Splits for the latest odds and percentages. In the meantime, let's examine a pair of matchups receiving sharp action today...


1:05 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates (-130, 9) at Washington Nationals

The Pirates (18-8) just took two of three at home against the Dodgers, winning Thursday's series finale 6-2 as +140 home dogs. Pittsburgh is now 9-1 over their last ten games. Meanwhile, the Nationals (9-15) just took two of three at the Mets, although they lost the series finale 9-8 on Thursday as +200 road dogs. In this early afternoon series opener, Pittsburgh hands the ball to lefty Rich Hill (2-2, 4.85 ERA) and Washington counters with fellow southpaw Patrick Corbin (1-3, 5.88 ERA). This line opened with the Pirates listed as a -120 road favorite and the Nats a +100 home dog. Pros have pounced on the red-hot Pirates at a low juice price, steaming Pittsburgh up from -120 to -130. Pittsburgh is receiving 83% of bets and 94% of money, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Non-division road favorites are 71-35 (67%) this season. When both teams had the day off the previous day, as is the case here, the favorite is 28-11 (72%) this season and 158-76 (68%) since 2022. The Pirates have the better bats (.258 vs .248) and superior pitching (3.60 ERA vs 4.16 ERA). Pittsburgh is 5-0 as a favorite, 5-2 against lefties and 9-4 on the road. Washington is 9-15 as a dog, 3-5 against lefties and 2-9 at home. Fading Corbin is 54-23 (70%) since 2020. 


4:05 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (-175, 7.5) at New York Mets 

The Braves (18-9) took last night's series opener 4-0, taking care of business as -130 road favorites. In this late afternoon rematch, Atlanta turns to righty Spencer Strider (3-0, 1.80 ERA) and New York (15-12) rebuttals with fellow righty Tylor Megill (3-1, 3.96 ERA). This line opened with Braves listed as a -150 road favorite and the Mets a +135 home dog. Sharps have laid the chalk with the Braves, steaming Atlanta up from -150 to -175. The Braves are receiving roughly 70% of bets and dollars, indicating both public and sharp support. Road favorites who made the postseason the previous year are 66-34 (66%) this season. Favorites off a win receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 53-29 (65%). Atlanta also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the better team. Atlanta has the edge at the plate (hitting .255 vs .240) and on the mound (3.38 ERA vs 4.36 ERA). The Braves are 15-8 as a favorite, 11-6 against righties and 11-2 on the road. 

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