Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Saturday April 15

April 15, 2023 01:40 AM


Today the weekend begins with a loaded 15-game MLB slate. You can track the odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits. In the meantime, let's dive into a pair of matchups receiving sharp action from respected bettors today.


4:05 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians (-170, 9.5) at Washington Nationals

The Guardians (8-6) took Friday night's Interleague series opener 4-3, taking care of business as -155 road favorites. In this late afternoon rematch, Cleveland hands the ball to righty Zach Plesac (0-0, 9.00 ERA) and Washington (4-10) counters with fellow righty Chad Kuhl (0-0, 8.10 ERA). This line opened with the Guardians listed as a -150 road favorite and the Nats a +125 home dog. Pros have pounced on Cleveland at the modest chalk price, steaming the Guardians up from-150 to -170. The Guardians are receiving 84% of bets but 90% of money, signaling a combination of heavy sharp and public support. Cleveland has value as an Interleague favorite with a line move in their favor, as the lack of familiarity benefits the "better" team. Non-division road favorites are 31-13 (71%) this season. Road favorites who made the playoffs the previous season playing an opponent who missed the playoffs are 28-14 (67%). Interleague favorites are 30-17 (64%). Cleveland is 6-2 on the road. Washington is just 1-6 at home.


4:10 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins (-130, 8.5) 

The Marlins (7-7) won last night's series opener 5-1, cruising as -155 home favorites. In today's rematch, the Diamondbacks (8-6) turn to righty Ryne Nelson (1-0, 4.91 ERA) while Miami rebuttals with southpaw Braxton Garrett (0-0, 4.70 ERA). This line opened with the Marlins listed as a short -115 home favorite and Arizona  +105 road dog. The public is relatively split here, with both sides receiving roughly 50% of tickets. However, despite this even bet count we've seen Miami move from -115 to -130. This signals pro money siding with the Marlins, triggering sharp line movement in their favor. Non-division favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 38-24 (61%) this season. Non-division favorites off a win are 45-25 (64%). The Diamondbacks have struggled against lefties in recent years, going just 35-65 (35%) against southpaws since 2021. Pros are also leaning over, as the the total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -120, signaling a possible rise up to 8.5. The over is receiving 50% of bets but 62% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy. 

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