Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Monday September 4

September 4, 2023 04:16 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

You can also track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Monday's MLB action...


4:07 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays (-195, 8.5) at Oakland Athletics

The Blue Jays (75-62) just took two of three at the Rockies, winning Sunday's Interleague series finale 7-5 as -245 road favorites. Meanwhile, the Athletics (42-95) just swept the Angels at home, winning 10-6 on Sunday as +115 home dogs. In this late afternoon series opener, the Blue Jays start righty Jose Berrios (9-10, 3.70 ERA) and the Athletics send out lefty Ken Waldichuk (2-7, 5.92 ERA). This line opened with Toronto listed as a -190 road favorite and Oakland a +155 home dog. Pros are laying the wood with the Blue Jays, driving Toronto up from -190 to -195. The Blue Jays are receiving 86% of bets and 94% of money, indicating heavy support from both public and sharp bettors. AL East favorites playing teams outside the division are 213-123 (63%) this season. Teams who made the playoffs the previous season are 47-10 (83%) against Oakland, generating a 19% ROI. The Blue Jays have a big edge at the plate (hitting .261 vs .224) and on the mound (team ERA 3.72 vs 5.64). The Athletics are 41-93 (31%) as a dog, 23-45 (34%) at home, 29-69 (30%) against righties and just 7-22 (24%) against the AL East. Berrios led the Jays to as 7-3 win over Oakland back on June 24th, giving up two earned runs over 6 innings while striking out 8. The Jays also enjoy a motivational edge, sitting 1.5-games back in the AL Wild Card race while the Athletics have already been eliminated from playoff contention. 


9:38 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (-180, 9) at Los Angeles Angels 

The Orioles (85-51) just took two of three at the Diamondbacks, winning Sunday's series finale 8-5 as +120 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Angels (64-73) have lost six of their last seven games and just got swept at the Athletics, losing 10-6 on Sunday as -130 road favorites. In tonight's series opener, Baltimore hands the ball to righty Grayson Rodriguez (4-3, 5.03 ERA) and Los Angeles counters with lefty Kenny Rosenberg (0-0, 6.43 ERA). This line opened with the Orioles listed as a -175 road favorite and the Angels a +145 home dog. Pros are laying the chalk with Baltimore, steaming the Orioles up from -175 to -180. Baltimore is receiving 86% of bets and 93% of money, signaling lopsided support from both Pro and Joe bettors. Non-division road favorites off a win are 169-116 (59%) this season. AL East favorites playing teams outside the division are 213-123 (63%). The Orioles are 46-20 (70%) as a favorite, including 16-5 (76%) as a road favorite. Baltimore has the better bats (hitting .256 vs .249) and superior pitching (team ERA 4.04 vs 4.73). The Orioles are 28-15 (65%) against lefties and 43-25 (63%) on the road, the most profitable road team in MLB. Rodriguez posted a 2.64 ERA in five August starts. He has also been better on the road (4.29 ERA) than at home (5.65). Baltimore also enjoys a motivational edge, as the Orioles lead the AL East by 2.5-games over Tampa Bay while the Angels are 12.5-games back in the AL Wild Card and just cleaned house by waiving several players.

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