Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Monday May 29

May 29, 2023 03:16 AM


Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.

 You can also track the latest odds and percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Monday's MLB slate...


4:10 p.m. ET: Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks (-190, 9.5)

The Rockies (24-30) just took two of three at home against the Mets, winning 11-10 on Sunday as +115 home dogs. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks (30-23) just dropped two of three at home against the Red Sox but won yesterday's series finale 4-2, taking care of business as -125 home favorites. In today's late afternoon series opener, Colorado starts righty Karl Kauffman (0-2, 9.35 ERA) and Arizona counters with fellow righty Ryne Nelson (1-2, 5.02 ERA). This line opened with the Diamondbacks listed as a -165 home favorite and the Rockies a +150 road dog. Sharps have laid the chalk with Arizona, steaming the Snakes up from -165 to -190. The Diamondbacks are receiving 78% of bets and 89% of money, signaling a heavy dose of both Pro and Joe support. Monday home favorites off a win are 18-11 (62%) this season. The Snakes are 13-8 as a favorite, 21-13 against righties and 15-12 at home. The Rockies are 21-24 as a dog, 16-20 against righties and 9-16 on the road. Sharps are also leaning over, as the total is 9.5 with the over juiced to -120, signaling a possible rise up to 10. The over is receiving 65% of buts but 81% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy. The Rockies are 4-1 to the over their last five games. 


8:10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at Chicago White Sox (-140)

The Angels (28-26) just got swept by the Marlins at home, losing 2-0 on Sunday as -130 home favorites. Similarly, the White Sox (22-33) just dropped three of four at home against the Tigers, losing 6-5 yesterday as -115 home favorites. In tonight's series opener, Los Angeles turns to righty Griffin Canning (3-2, 4.95 ERA) and Chicago goes with fellow righty Michael Kopech (3-4, 4.24 ERA). This line opened with the White Sox listed as a -130 home favorite and the Angels a +120 road dog. The public is split down the middle and doesn't who to take. However, despite the even ticket count we've seen Chicago creep up from -130 to -140. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the bets are split. So we know this movement was caused by smart money backing the White Sox at home. Chicago is receiving 50% of bets but 65% of action, a sharp discrepancy. Non-division home favorites with steam 10-cents or more in their favor are 95-52 (65%) this season. We've also seen some liability on a higher scoring game, as the total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -115. The White Sox are 4-1 to the over their last five games. Kopech has a 1.99 ERA in five May starts. Chicago is 4-1 in those games. 

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