Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Monday May 29

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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Monday’s MLB slate…

 

4:10 p.m. ET: Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks (-190, 9.5)

The Rockies (24-30) just took two of three at home against the Mets, winning 11-10 on Sunday as +115 home dogs. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks (30-23) just dropped two of three at home against the Red Sox but won yesterday’s series finale 4-2, taking care of business as -125 home favorites. In today’s late afternoon series opener, Colorado starts righty Karl Kauffman (0-2, 9.35 ERA) and Arizona counters with fellow righty Ryne Nelson (1-2, 5.02 ERA). This line opened with the Diamondbacks listed as a -165 home favorite and the Rockies a +150 road dog. Sharps have laid the chalk with Arizona, steaming the Snakes up from -165 to -190. The Diamondbacks are receiving 78% of bets and 89% of money, signaling a heavy dose of both Pro and Joe support. Monday home favorites off a win are 18-11 (62%) this season. The Snakes are 13-8 as a favorite, 21-13 against righties and 15-12 at home. The Rockies are 21-24 as a dog, 16-20 against righties and 9-16 on the road. Sharps are also leaning over, as the total is 9.5 with the over juiced to -120, signaling a possible rise up to 10. The over is receiving 65% of buts but 81% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy. The Rockies are 4-1 to the over their last five games. 

 

8:10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at Chicago White Sox (-140)

The Angels (28-26) just got swept by the Marlins at home, losing 2-0 on Sunday as -130 home favorites. Similarly, the White Sox (22-33) just dropped three of four at home against the Tigers, losing 6-5 yesterday as -115 home favorites. In tonight’s series opener, Los Angeles turns to righty Griffin Canning (3-2, 4.95 ERA) and Chicago goes with fellow righty Michael Kopech (3-4, 4.24 ERA). This line opened with the White Sox listed as a -130 home favorite and the Angels a +120 road dog. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t who to take. However, despite the even ticket count we’ve seen Chicago creep up from -130 to -140. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are split. So we know this movement was caused by smart money backing the White Sox at home. Chicago is receiving 50% of bets but 65% of action, a sharp discrepancy. Non-division home favorites with steam 10-cents or more in their favor are 95-52 (65%) this season. We’ve also seen some liability on a higher scoring game, as the total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -115. The White Sox are 4-1 to the over their last five games. Kopech has a 1.99 ERA in five May starts. Chicago is 4-1 in those games.