Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Monday’s MLB slate…
6:40 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies (-200, 8.5)
The Diamondbacks (27-20) are 7-2 over their last nine games and just took two of three at the Pirates, winning 8-3 on Sunday as -130 road favorites. Meanwhile, the Phillies (22-24) have lost five of their last seven games but just took two of three at home against the Cubs, winning 2-1 on Sunday as -115 home favorites. In tonight’s series opener, Arizona starts lefty Tommy Henry (1-1, 5.00 ERA) and Philadelphia counters with righty Zack Wheeler (3-3, 4.06 ERA). This line opened with the Phillies listed as a -185 home favorite and the Diamondbacks a +170 road dog. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Why is a below .500 team such a heavy favorite against a team that is 7-games above .500? If it looks too good to be true, it usually is. Sharps have laid the chalk with Philadelphia, steaming the Phillies up from -185 to -200. The Phillies are receiving 69% of bets but 83% of money, a sharp "low bets, higher dollars" bet discrepancy. Monday home favorites off a win are 17-9 (65%) this season and 139-83 (63%) since 2020. The total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -115, signaling some over liability and a possible rise up to 9. The over is receiving 58% Of bets but 75% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy. The over is 10-4 in the last 14 Arizona road games.
6:40 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (-185, 10) at Cincinnati Reds
The Cardinals (21-27) are 11-3 over their last 14 games and just took three of four at home against the Dodgers, winning 10-5 on Sunday as +115 home dogs. On the flip side, the Reds (19-27) have lost six of their last seven games and just got swept at home by the Yankees, losing 4-1 on Sunday as +115 home dogs. In tonight’s series opener, St. Louis turns to lefty Jordan Montgomery (2-6, 4.21 ERA) and Cincinnati goes with fellow lefty Brandon Williamson (0-0, 1.59 ERA). This line opened with the Cardinals listed as a -165 road favorite and the Reds a +150 home dog. Pros are riding the hot hand, steaming St. Louis up from -165 to -185. The Cardinals are receiving roughly 80% of bets and dollars, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Road favorites who made the playoffs the previous season playing an opponent who did not are 81-50 (62%) this season. The Cardinals have the edge at the plate (hitting .263 vs .243) and on the mound (team ERA 4.31 vs 5.08). Pros also hit the over, raising the total from 9.5 to 10. The over is receiving 37% of bets but 61% of money, a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. The over is 12-6 in the last 18 Cardinals games.