Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Monday May 15

May 15, 2023 02:23 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

You can also track the VSiN Betting Splits for every game. 

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Monday's MLB slate...


6:35 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels (-125, 8) at Baltimore Orioles 

The Angels (21-20) are 2-6 over their last eight games and just dropped two of three at the Guardians, losing 4-3 on Sunday as +115 road dogs. On the flip side, the Orioles (26-14) are 4-1 over their last five games and just took two of three at home against the Pirates but lost 4-0 on Sunday as -105 home dogs. In tonight's series opener, Los Angeles turns to ace righty Shohei Ohtani (4-1, 2.74 ERA) and Baltimore counters with fellow righty Grayson Rodriguez (2-0, 5.08 ERA). This line opened with The Angels listed as a -130 road favorite and the Orioles a +115 home dog, The public is rushing to the window to lay the short chalk with Ohtani. However, despite receiving 68% the Angels have fallen from -130 to -125. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Baltimore, with pros grabbing the plus-money with the Orioles at home (+115 to +110). The Orioles have contrarian value, receiving only 32% of bets as a home dog with a line move in their favor. Baltimore is 14-9 against righties and 13-6 at home. The Orioles are +30 in run differential. The Angels are +9.


8:10 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs at Houston Astros (-180, 7.5)

The Cubs (19-21) are 5-11 over their last 16 games and just dropped two of three at the Twins, losing 16-3 on Sunday as +115 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Astros (21-19) have won four of their last five and just took two of three at the White Sox, winning 4-3 on Sunday as -135 road favorites. In tonight's series opener, Chicago taps righty Jameson Taillon (0-2, 6.41 ERA) and Houston sends out lefty Framber Valdez (3-4, 2.38 ERA). This line opened with the Astros listed as a -170 home favorite and Chicago a +150 road dog. Pros are riding the hot hand, steaming Houston up from -170 to -180. The Astros are receiving 82% of bets but 87% of money, signaling both Pro and Joe support. Monday home favorites off a win are 15-8 (65%) this season and 137-82 (63%) since 2020. Houston also has value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team, and a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team. The Astros also have the fresher bullpen, throwing 8.2 innings over the last three games compared to 11.1 for the Cubs.

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