Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Monday May 1

May 1, 2023 01:34 AM


Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line move of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

You can also track the VSiN Betting Splits for every game. 

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Monday's MLB slate...


8:10 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at Houston Astros (-185, 9)

The Giants (11-16) have lost three straight games and just got swept in a brief two-game series against the Padres, losing 6-4 on Sunday as +130 dogs. Meanwhile, the Astros (15-13) just dropped two of three at home against the Phillies but managed to win yesterday's series finale 4-3 as -155 home favorites. In tonight's series opener, the Giants hand the ball to righty Ross Stripling (0-1, 6.89 ERA) and the Astros counter with fellow righty Luis Garcia (2-2, 4.00 ERA). This line opened with Houston listed as a -175 home favorite and San Francisco a +160 road dog. Pros have laid the chalk with the Astros, steaming Houston up from -175 to -185. The Astros are receiving 79% of bets but 92% of money, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Non-division favorites off a win are 109-58 (65%) this season. Monday home favorites off a win are 11-6 (65%) this season and 133-80 (62%) since 2020. Houston also has value as an Interleague favorite, as the lack of familiarity benefits the better team. Both teams are hitting .245. The difference comes on the mound, with Houston sporting a 3.22 ERA compared to 4.75 for San Francisco. The Giants are 5-9 as a dog, 6-10 against righties and 4-9 on the road. 


10:10 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers (-165, 8.5)

The Phillies (15-14) just took two of three on the road at the Astros but fell 4-3 on Sunday, losing as +135 road dogs. On the flip side, the Dodgers (16-13) just swept the Cardinals at home, winning 6-3 on Sunday as -140 home favorites. In tonight's series opener, Philadelphia taps righty Taijuan Walker (2-1, 4.97 ERA) and Los Angeles sends out fellow righty Tony Gonsolin (0-0, 0.00 ERA). This line opened with the Dodgers listed as a -155 home favorite and the Phillies a +140 road dog. Pros have laid the juice with the Dodgers at home, steaming Los Angeles up from -155 to -165. The Dodgers are receiving 78% of bets and 85% of money, indicating both public and sharp support. Non-division favorites off a win are 109-58 (65%) this season. Favorites off a win receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 57-33 (63%). Pros are also leaning over here, as the total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -120, signaling a possible rise up to 9. The forecast calls for mid 50s with 5-10 MPH winds blowing out to center. The over is receiving 73% of bets but 93% of money, a sharp over discrepancy. 

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