Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Monday August 21

August 21, 2023 06:51 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

You can also track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Monday's MLB slate...


7:20 p.m. ET: New York Mets at Atlanta Braves (-210, 10) 

The Mets (58-67) just took three of four at the Cardinals but lost Sunday's series finale 7-3, failing to cash as +105 road dogs. Similarly, the Braves (80-43) just took two of three from the Giants but lost the series finale 4-3 as -230 home favorites. In tonight's series opener, the Mets hand the ball to lefty David Peterson (3-7, 5.45 ERA) and the Braves counter with righty Allan Winans (1-0, 1.59 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -200 home favorite and New York a +165 road dog. Pros are laying the chalk with the Braves, steaming Atlanta up from -200 to -210. The Braves are receiving 86% of bets and 95% of money, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Atlanta has a big edge at the plate (hitting .274 vs .238) and on the mound (team ERA 3.80 vs 4.49). Peterson has a 7.75 ERA on the road (compared to 2.88 at home). Peterson faced the Braves back in April and gave up four runs in five innings in a 4-0 loss. Winans faced the Mets earlier this month and went 7 innings, giving up no runs and striking our 9 in a 21-3 victory. The Braves are 73-38 as a favorite, 42-21 at home and 14-7 against lefties. The Mets are 12-34 as a dog and 26-38 on the road. The Braves are 8-2 against the Mets this season. 


8:10 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners (-185, 9) at Chicago White Sox

The Mariners (69-55) have won six straight and just swept the Astros, winning Sunday's series finale 7-6 as +160 road dogs. On the flip side, the White Sox (49-75) are 2-6 over their last eight and just lost two of three at the Rockies, although Chicago won the series finale 10-5 as -135 road favorites. In tonight's series opener, Seattle goes with righty Luis Castillo (9-7, 3.23 ERA) and Chicago starts righty Touki Toussaint (1-5, 4.47 ERA). This line opened with the Mariners listed as a -175 road favorite and the White Sox a +145 home dog. Sharps have laid the chalk with Seattle, steaming the Mariners up from -175 to -185. Non-division road favorites off a win are 148-101 (59%) this season. Seattle has the better bats (hitting .241 vs .238) and superior pitching (team ERA 3.71 vs 4.72). The Mariners are 35-27 on the road. The White Sox are 25-33 at home. The Mariners are 4-0 in Castillo's last four starts. Toussaint has a 6.91 ERA in three August starts. Chicago is just 29-56 as a dog, 35-58 against righties and 30-58 against non-division opponents. Seattle also has the motivational edge, as the Mariners hold the last Wild Card spot and are just 3-games back in the AL West. Meanwhile, the White Sox are virtually eliminated (20 games back in the Wild Card race). 

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