Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Monday August 14

August 14, 2023 06:48 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.

You can also track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Monday's MLB slate...


6:40 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (-145, 8) at Miami Marlins

The Astros (68-51) just took two of three from the Angels but lost Sunday's series finale 2-1, failing to cash as -140 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Marlins (62-57) just took two of three from the Yankees, winning 8-7 yesterday as +105 home dogs. In tonight's Interleague series opener, the Astros hand the ball to lefty Framber Valdez (9-7, 3.30 ERA) and the Marlins counter with fellow southpaw Braxton Garrett (6-3, 4.08 ERA). This line opened with Houston listed as a -130 road favorite and Miami a +120 home dog. Sharps have laid the modest chalk with the Astros, steaming Houston up from -130 to -145. The Astros are receiving 76% of bets and 85% of money, signaling a heavy combination of both public and sharp support. Sweet spot short road favorites -120 to -150 are 170-111 (61%) this season with a 6% ROI. Road Interleague favorites are 108-72 (60%) with a 3% ROI. Houston also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team. The Astros are 21-13 (62%) against lefties this season. The Marlins are just 14-16 (47%) against lefties. Garrett has a 5.40 ERA at home compared to 2.68 on the road. Houston has a +17 bullpen rating compared to 0 for Miami. 


8:05 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers (-175, 9) 

The Angels (59-60) just dropped two of three at the Astros but won yesterday's series finale 2-1, cashing as +125 road dogs. On the flip side, the Rangers (70-48) just took two of three at the Giants but lost 3-2 yesterday as +110 road dogs. In tonight's series opener, the Angels go with lefty Patrick Sandoval (6-8, 3.86 ERA) and the Rangers send out righty Max Scherzer (11-4, 3.88 ERA). This line opened with Texas listed as a -165 home favorite and Los Angeles a +150 road dog. Pros are backing Texas at home with their newly acquired ace on the mound, steaming the Rangers up from -165 to -175. Texas is receiving 78% of bets and 86% of money, indicating a mix of both Pro and Joe support. Monday home favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 27-16 (63%) this season. The Rangers have a substantial edge at the plate, hitting .271 vs .256 for the Angels. The Rangers are 51-30 as a favorite, 21-12 against lefties and 40-20 at home, tied with the Rays for the best home record in MLB. Scherzer is 2-0 with Texas, giving up just four runs over 13 innings against the White Sox (5-3 win) and Athletics (6-1 win). The Rangers also have the better bullpen (+2 vs -12). 

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