Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Friday May 5

May 5, 2023 01:53 AM


Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Friday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

You can also track the VSiN Betting Splits for every game. 

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Friday's MLB action...


7:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins (-125, 8.5) at Cleveland Guardians 

The Twins (18-14) just dropped two of three at the White Sox but won Thursday's series finale 7-3, cashing as -145 road favorites. Similarly, the Guardians (14-17) just lost two of three at the Yankees, falling 4-3 on Wednesday as -120 road favorites. In tonight's series opener, Minnesota hands the ball to righty Bailey Ober (1-0, 1.59 ERA) and Cleveland counters with fellow righty Peyton Battenfield (0-2, 4.67 ERA). This line opened with the Twins listed as a short -110 road favorite and the Guardians a +100 home dog. Pros have jumped on Minnesota at the cheap chalk price, steaming the Twins up from -110 to -125. The Twins are receiving 60% of bets but nearly 70% of money, signaling slight public support but also heavy smart money. Favorites off a win receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 65-35 (64%) this season. Favorites who missed the postseason the previous year are 121-75 (62%). Minnesota is 16-6 as a favorite. The total is 8.5 with the under juiced to -115, signaling some under liability and a possible fall down to 8. The forecast calls for high 50s with wind blowing in from right 7-10 MPH. 


7:20 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles at Atlanta Braves (-200, 8.5)

The Orioles (21-10) just took two of three at the Royals, winning 13-10 on Thursday as -190 road favorites. Meanwhile, the Braves (22-10) just swept the Marlins, winning 6-3 yesterday as -105 road dogs. In tonight's Interleague series opener, Baltimore starts righty Dean Kremer (2-1, 6.67 ERA) while Atlanta rebuttals with lefty Max Fried (2-0, 0.45 ERA). This line opened with the Braves listed as a -190 home favorite and the Orioles a +175 road dog. Pros aren't scared off by the expensive chalk and have steamed the Braves up from -190 to -200. The Braves are receiving roughly 80% of bets and dollars, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Non-division favorites off a win are 118-64 (65%) this season. The Braves have the better hitting (.263 vs .259) and superior pitching (3.51 ERA vs 4.57 ERA). Atlanta is 18-9 as a favorite. Atlanta also has value as a favorite in Interleague play, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team. The total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -115, signaling over liability. Both of these teams are "over" teams, with the Orioles 18-12-1 to the over and the Braves 19-12-1 to the over. The over is 5-2 in the last seven Orioles games and 7-3 in the last ten Braves games. The over is also 10-1 in the last eleven Braves home games. 

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