Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Friday May 12

May 11, 2023 11:21 PM


Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Friday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

You can also track the VSiN Betting Splits for every game. 

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Friday's MLB slate...


7:07 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (-155, 8.5) at Toronto Blue Jays

The Braves (25-12) are 6-2 over their last eight games and just split a two-game series with the Red Sox, losing 5-2 on Wednesday as -170 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays (21-16) are just 3-7 over their last ten games and just got swept in a two-game series at the Phillies, losing 2-1 on Wednesday as +105 road dogs. In tonight's series opener, Atlanta hands the ball to righty Spencer Strider (4-0, 2.70 ERA) and Toronto counters with fellow righty Chris Bassitt (4-2, 4.28 ERA). This line opened with the Braves listed as a -145 road favorite and the Jays a +130 home dog. Sharps have laid the juice with Atlanta, steaming the Braves up from -145 to -155. Atlanta is receiving 70% of bets but 80% of money, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 36-18 (67%) this season. Road Interleague favorites are 35-21 (63%). The Braves are 21-11 as a favorite, 16-9 against righties and 15-3 on the road. Atlanta has the edge at the plate (hitting .262 vs .256) and on the mound (team ERA 3.52 vs 4.09). The Braves are a perfect 7-0 in Strider's seven starts this season.


8:10 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (-150, 9) at Chicago White Sox 

The Astros (19-18) just took two of three at the Angels, winning 5-4 on Wednesday as -125 road favorites. On the flip side, the White Sox (13-26) just dropped three of four at the Royals, losing 4-3 on Thursday as -110 road favorites. In tonight's series opener, Houston starts righty J.P. France (0-0, 0.00 ERA) and Chicago taps fellow righty Michael Kopech (1-3, 5.97 ERA). This line opened with Houston listed as a -135 road favorite and Chicago a +120 home dog. Pros have pounced on Houston laying the short chalk, steaming the Astros up from -135 to -150. Houston is receiving 76% of bets but 89% of money, indicating both public and sharp support. Non-division favorites off a win are 132-75 (64%) this season. Road favorites who made the playoffs the previous season playing an opponent who did not are 66-42 (61%). Houston also enjoys a "rest vs tired" advantage as the Astros were off yesterday while the White Sox played in Kansas City. Chicago is in a "fade" spot, going just 6-19 as a dog, 11-20 against righties and 6-10 at home. Both teams are hitting .238. The difference comes on the mound, with Houston sporting a 3.36 ERA compared to 5.71 for Chicago. 


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