Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Friday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Friday’s MLB action...
7:05 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles (-180, 8)
The Royals (18-44) have lost six of their last seven games and just got swept at the Marlins, losing 6-1 on Wednesday as +155 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Orioles (38-24) just dropped two of three at the Brewers but avoided a sweep with a 6-3 win on Thursday as -110 road favorites. In tonight’s series opener, Kansas City hands the ball to lefty Daniel Lynch (0-1, 4.35 ERA) and Baltimore counters with righty Tyler Wells (4-2, 3.29 ERA). This line opened with the Orioles listed as a -165 home favorite and the Royals a +150 road dog. Sharps are laying the chalk with Baltimore at home, steaming the Orioles up from -165 to -180. Baltimore is receiving 88% of bets and 96% of money, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Home favorites off a win receiving 5-cents of steam or more are 105-48 (69%) this season with an 11% ROI. AL East teams facing non-AL East teams are 137-79 (63%). The Orioles have the edge at the plate (hitting .247 vs .230) and on the mound (team ERA 4.26 vs 5.10). Wells has a 2.45 ERA at home in six starts. Baltimore is 22-7 as a favorite, 15-8 against lefties and 17-12 at home. Kansas City is 15-35 as a dog, 13-32 against righties and 9-21 on the road. The Orioles also have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the better team.
7:07 p.m.ET: Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays (-125, 8.5)
The Twins (31-32) have lost five straight and just got swept at the Rays, losing 4-2 yesterday as -105 road dogs. On the flip side, the Blue Jays (36-28) are 7-1 over their last eight games and just took three of four at home against the Astros, winning 3-2 yesterday as -105 home dogs. In tonight’s series opener, Minnesota taps righty Sonny Gray (4-1, 2.15 ERA) and Toronto sends out lefty Yusei Kikuchi (6-2, 4.40 ERA). This line opened with the Blue Jays listed as a -115 home favorite and the Twins a +105 road dog. Pros have pounced on Toronto laying a short chalk price at home, steaming the Jays up from -115 to -125. AL East teams facing AL Central teams are 49-21 (70%) this season. Toronto has a big edge at the plate, hitting .264 compared to .229 for Minnesota. The Blue Jays are 24-19 as a favorite and 18-11 at home. The Twins are 7-17 as a dog and 13-18 on the road. The Twins are just 1-5 in Gray’s last six starts. Pros are also leaning over, as the total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -115. The over is receiving 49% of bets but 95% of money, a massive sharp contrarian bet discrepancy.