Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Friday July 21

July 21, 2023 07:03 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Friday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.

You can also track the latest odds and percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Friday's MLB slate...


6:40 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres (-145, 9) at Detroit Tigers 

The Padres (46-51) just took two of three at the Blue Jays but lost Thursday's series finale 4-0, failing to cash as -120 road favorites. Meanwhile, the Tigers (44-52) just took two of three at the Royals, winning 3-0 yesterday as -130 road favorites. In tonight's series opener, San Diego hands the ball to righty Seth Lugo (3-4, 3.78 ERA) and Detroit counters with fellow righty Reese Olson (1-3, 3.96 ERA). This line opened with the Padres listed as a -140 road favorite and the Tigers a +125 home dog. Pros have laid the chalk with San Diego, steaming the Padres up from -140 to -145. San Diego is receiving 74% of bets and 77% of money, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Sweet spot short road favorites -120 to -150 are 147-82 (64%) this season with a 12% ROI. Road Interleague favorites are 89-53 (63%) with a 7% ROI. San Diego has the edge at the plate (hitting .234 vs .230) and on the mound (team ERA 3.78 vs 4.36). Pros are also leaning under, as the total is 9 with the under juiced to -115, signaling a possible drop down to 8.5. When the total is 9 or higher in Interleague play the under is 88-73 (55%). The Padres are 51-38 (57%) to the under, the third-best under team in MLB. 


7:10 p.m. ET: New York Mets at Boston Red Sox (-120, 9.5)

The Mets (45-51) just took two of three from the White Sox but lost yesterday's series finale 6-2 as -160 home favorites. On the flip side, the Red Sox (51-46) just dropped two of three at the Athletics, losing the series finale 6-5 as -220 road favorites. In tonight's series opener, the Mets start righty Kodai Senga (7-5, 3.20 ERA) and the Red Sox send out fellow righty Kutter Crawford (4-4, 3.74 ERA). This line opened with Boston listed as a short -110 home favorite and New York a +100 road dog. Pros have jumped on the Red Sox laying a cheap chalk price at home, driving Boston up from -110 to -120. AL East favorites playing teams outside the division are 156-81 (66%) this season with a 7% ROI. Boston also enjoys a "rest vs tired" advantage as the Red Sox were off yesterday while the Mets played at home against the White Sox. Boston has a notable edge at the plate, hitting .263 vs .237 for New York. Crawford has a 2.87 ERA in three July starts. Boston is 3-0 in those games. Senga has a 2.50 ERA at home but a 3.97 ERA on the road. The Reds Sox have a +3 bullpen rating. The Mets are -8. 

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