Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Friday August 18

August 18, 2023 06:46 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Friday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.

You can also track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Friday's MLB slate...


7:05 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (-200, 9) at Washington Nationals 

The Phillies (66-55) just split a two-game series at the Blue Jays, winning Wednesday's series finale 9-4 as +115 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Nationals (55-67) just took two of three from the Red Sox, winning 10-7 yesterday as +155 home dogs. In tonight's series opener, the Phillies hand the ball to righty Michael Lorenzen (7-7, 3.23 ERA) and the Nationals counter with fellow righty Joan Adon (1-0, 5.14 ERA). This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -185 road favorite and Washington a +155 home dog. Sharps have laid the chalk with the Phillies, steaming Philadelphia up from -185 to -200. The Phillies are receiving 80% of bets and dollars, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. The Phillies enjoy a rest advantage, having been off yesterday while the Nats played the Red Sox. Rested favorites playing teams on a back-to-back are 33-22 (60%) this season, including 11-6 (65%) on the road. Lorenzen is coming off eight days of rest after throwing a no-hitter against the Nats his last start out. Pros are also leaning under, as the total is 9 with the under juiced to -115. The under is receiving 56% of bets and 66% of money, a notable sharp bet discrepancy. The forecast calls for mid 70s with 10 MPH winds blowing in from left center. 


9:40 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (-185, 8.5) at Oakland Athletics

The Orioles (74-47) just dropped two of three at the Padres, losing 5-2 on Wednesday as +155 road dogs. Similarly, the Athletics (34-87) just dropped two of three at the Cardinals but won Wednesday's series finale 8-0 as +145 road dogs. In tonight's series opener, the Orioles start righty Kyle Gibson (11-7, 4.89 ERA) and the Athletics go with fellow righty Luis Medina (3-8, 5.31 ERA). This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -175 road favorite and Oakland a +150 home dog. Pros aren't outsmarting themselves on this one; they're the chalk with Baltimore, driving the Orioles up from -175 to -185. Baltimore is receiving 92% of bets and 97% of money, indicating overwhelming support from both the public and wiseguys. When both teams had the previous day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 105-62 (63%) this season. AL East favorites playing teams outside the division are 186-106 (64%). Baltimore is 38-16 (70%) as a favorite and 13-6 (68%) as a favorite off a loss. The Orioles have the better bats (hitting .250 vs .223) and superior pitching (team ERA 4.13 vs 5.75). Baltimore also has value as a non-division road favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team. The A's are 34-86 (28%) as a dog, 18-41 (31%) at home and 24-63 (28%) against righties. 

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