Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Friday April 28

April 28, 2023 02:42 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Friday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

You can also track the VSiN Betting Splits for every game. 

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Friday's MLB action...


7:10 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (-155, 8.5) at Chicago White Sox

The Rays (21-5) took Thursday night's series opener 14-5, easily cashing as -160 road favorites. In tonight's rematch, Tampa Bay hands the ball to righty Zach Eflin (3-0, 2.81 ERA) and the White Sox (7-19) counter with fellow righty Lucas Giolito (1-2, 4.50 ERA). This line opened with the Rays listed as a -135 road favorite and the White Sox a +115 home dog. Pros have laid the chalk with Tampa Bay, steaming the Rays up from -135 to - 155. Tampa Bay is receiving 89% of bets but 94% of money, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Non-division road favorites are 68-34 (67%) this season. Non-division favorites off a win are 92-52 (64%). Road favorites who made the playoffs last season against an opponent who did not are 51-26 (66%). Favorites off a blowout win of 9 runs or more are 17-4 (81%). The Rays are 21-4 as a favorite, 15-4 against righties and 7-3 on the road. The White Sox are 2-15 as a dog, 5-14 against righties and 3-7 at home. Tampa Bay has the better bets (hitting .280 vs .231) and superior pitching (team ERA 2.83 vs 5.75). 


7:10 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (-140, 7.5) at New York Mets

The Braves (17-9) just took three of four at home against the Marlins but lost 5-4 on Thursday, failing to cash as -165 home favorites. On the flip side, the Mets (15-11) just dropped two of three at home against the Nats but won 9-8 yesterday, taking care of business as -220 home favorites. In tonight's series opener, Atlanta turns to lefty Max Fried (1-0, 0.60 ERA) and New York rebuttals with lefty David Peterson (1-3, 7.36 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -130 road favorite and New York a +115 home dog. Pros have pounced on the Braves at the short juice price, steaming Atlanta up from -130 to -140. The Braves are receiving 72% of bets and 78% of money, indicating both sharp and public support. Road favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 63-34 (65%) this season. Atlanta also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the better team. The Braves are 15-8 as a favorite, 10-2 on the road and 6-3 against lefties. Atlanta also has the edge at the plate (.255 vs .242) and on the mound (3.44 vs 4.30). 

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