Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Friday April 21

April 21, 2023 01:58 AM
 

 

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Friday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

You can also track the VSiN Betting Splits for every game.

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Friday's MLB slate...

 

6:35 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates (-140, 8.5)

The Pirates (13-7) took Thursday night's series opener 4-3, cashing as -165 home favorites. In tonight's rematch, Cincinnati (7-12) hands the ball to righty Graham Ashcraft (2-0, 1.42 ERA) and Pittsburgh counters with fellow righty Mitch Keller (1-0, 3.80 ERA). This line opened with the Pirates listed as a -130 home favorite and the Reds a +110 road dog. Sharps seem to be saying "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" and are once again laying the chalk with Pittsburgh, steaming the Pirates up from -130 to -140. The Pirates are receiving 74% of bets and 78% of money, signaling a combination of heavy public and sharp support. Favorites who missed the postseason the previous year are 72-37 (66%) so far this season. The Pirates have the better bats (.253 vs .240) and the better pitching (4.03 ERA vs 5.36 ERA). Cincinnati is 4-11 as a dog, 2-11 against righties and 1-6 on the road. Pittsburgh is 3-0 as a favorite, 9-5 against righties and 4-3 at home. The Pirates are +20 in run differential. The Reds are -17. 

 

7:05 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles (-175, 8.5)

This is the first game of a three-game series. The Tigers (7-10) just took two of three at home against the Guardians but lost 3-2 on Wednesday as +120 home dogs. Meanwhile, the Orioles (11-7) are 7-2 over their last nine games and just swept a two-game series at the Nationals, winning 4-0 on Wednesday as -140 road favorites. In tonight's series opener, the Tigers hand the ball to righty Michael Lorenzen (0-0, 13.50 ERA) and the Orioles rebuttal with fellow righty Tyler Wells (0-1, 3.86 ERA). This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -165 home favorite and Detroit a +140 road dog. Pros have laid the juice with Baltimore at home, steaming the Orioles up from -165 to -175. Baltimore is receiving 88% of bets and 96% of money, a heavy combination of Pro and Joe support. Non-division favorites off a win are 71-38 (65%) this season. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 151-72 (68%) since 2022. The Orioles are 6-1 as a favorite, 7-4 against righties and 4-3 at home. The Tigers are 7-10 as a dog, 5-7 against righties and 3-6 on the road. Baltimore also has the better hitting (.249 vs .218) against superior pitching (4.68 ERA vs 5.19 ERA). The Orioles are +12 in run differential. The Tigers are -36. 

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Thom Cunningham: Golden Knights at Stars  - 1P - OVER (1.5). View more picks.

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The Handle: With the recent news on Jimmy Garoppolo's injury clause, consider fading the Raiders in NFL futures markets now in case Las Vegas does in fact move on from the QB. View more tips.

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