Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Friday April 21

April 21, 2023 01:58 AM


Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Friday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

You can also track the VSiN Betting Splits for every game.

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Friday's MLB slate...


6:35 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates (-140, 8.5)

The Pirates (13-7) took Thursday night's series opener 4-3, cashing as -165 home favorites. In tonight's rematch, Cincinnati (7-12) hands the ball to righty Graham Ashcraft (2-0, 1.42 ERA) and Pittsburgh counters with fellow righty Mitch Keller (1-0, 3.80 ERA). This line opened with the Pirates listed as a -130 home favorite and the Reds a +110 road dog. Sharps seem to be saying "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" and are once again laying the chalk with Pittsburgh, steaming the Pirates up from -130 to -140. The Pirates are receiving 74% of bets and 78% of money, signaling a combination of heavy public and sharp support. Favorites who missed the postseason the previous year are 72-37 (66%) so far this season. The Pirates have the better bats (.253 vs .240) and the better pitching (4.03 ERA vs 5.36 ERA). Cincinnati is 4-11 as a dog, 2-11 against righties and 1-6 on the road. Pittsburgh is 3-0 as a favorite, 9-5 against righties and 4-3 at home. The Pirates are +20 in run differential. The Reds are -17. 


7:05 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles (-175, 8.5)

This is the first game of a three-game series. The Tigers (7-10) just took two of three at home against the Guardians but lost 3-2 on Wednesday as +120 home dogs. Meanwhile, the Orioles (11-7) are 7-2 over their last nine games and just swept a two-game series at the Nationals, winning 4-0 on Wednesday as -140 road favorites. In tonight's series opener, the Tigers hand the ball to righty Michael Lorenzen (0-0, 13.50 ERA) and the Orioles rebuttal with fellow righty Tyler Wells (0-1, 3.86 ERA). This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -165 home favorite and Detroit a +140 road dog. Pros have laid the juice with Baltimore at home, steaming the Orioles up from -165 to -175. Baltimore is receiving 88% of bets and 96% of money, a heavy combination of Pro and Joe support. Non-division favorites off a win are 71-38 (65%) this season. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 151-72 (68%) since 2022. The Orioles are 6-1 as a favorite, 7-4 against righties and 4-3 at home. The Tigers are 7-10 as a dog, 5-7 against righties and 3-6 on the road. Baltimore also has the better hitting (.249 vs .218) against superior pitching (4.68 ERA vs 5.19 ERA). The Orioles are +12 in run differential. The Tigers are -36. 

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