Best bets for MLB Futures
AL MVP
DraftKings:
Top MLB Resources:
Ohtani -425
Judge +1800
Seager +2800
Franco +3500
Fanduel:
Ohtani -500
Judge +2500
Seager +4000
Franco +4000
Last 30 Days:
Ohtani: 33 hits, 22 runs, 6 doubles, 1 triple, 13 home runs, 26 RBIs, 27 strikeouts/18 walks, 4 stolen bases, .324/.426/.784, 3.41 ERA, 29 IP, 11 ER, 25 hits, 3 HR, 34 strikeouts/13 walks. .234 opponent batting average.
Franco: 30 hits, 14 runs, 5 doubles, 2 triples, 1 home run, 9 RBIs, 11 strikeouts/10 walks, 10 stolen bases, .303/.364/.424
Seager: 41 hits, 19 runs, 11 doubles, 8 home runs, 31 RBIs, 24 strikeouts/9 walks, 1 stolen base, .357/.400/.661
Judge (On IL): 10 hits, 11 runs, 2 doubles, 6 home runs, 8 RBIs, 13 strikeouts/10 walks, .263/.417/.789
The only thing that will prevent Shohei Ohtani from winning his second MVP in three seasons is an injury. This year I don’t really have to sell it.
Wander Franco would be a more serious contender if Ohtani is sidelined for an extended amount of time. With Franco, it’s important to remember he’s still not even 21 years old and he’s yet to reach his full potential. Aaron Judge and Corey Seager have both missed too many games to contend this year seriously.
NL MVP
DraftKings:
Ronald Acuna -140
Corbin Carroll +650
Freddie Freeman +700
Mookie Betts +1800
Luis Arraez +2500
FanDuel:
Ronald Acuna -130
Corbin Carroll +500
Freddie Freeman +700
Mookie Betts +2500
Luis Arraez +2500
Last 30 Days:
Acuna: 33 hits, 20 runs, 8 doubles, 1 triple, 4 home runs, 18 RBIs, 15 strikeouts/11 walks, 12 stolen bases, .292/.352/.487
Carroll: 35 hits, 28 runs, 9 doubles, 2 triples, 10 home runs, 24 RBIs, 20 strikeouts/10 walks, 8 stolen bases, .337/.410/.750
Freeman: 33 hits, 21 runs, 8 doubles, 5 home runs, 19 RBIs, 21 strikeouts/13 walks, 3 stolen bases, .327/.420/.554
Betts: 29 hits, 22 runs, 2 doubles, 7 home runs, 15 RBIs, 18 strikeouts/13 walks, 4 stolen bases, .287/.379/.515
Luis Arraez: 42 hits, 15 runs, 5 doubles, 1 home run, 20 RBIs, 6 strikeouts/6 walks, .420/.464/.500
Ronald Acuna has separated himself from the rest of the field here and finds himself in a similar situation to Ohtani where the most serious threat to his MVP campaign at this point is an injury.
An unlikely contender has emerged in the MVP race, rookie outfielder Corbin Carroll is not only well on his way to winning the NL Rookie of the Year, but he’s vaulted past several other serious contenders and now finds himself the only player besides Acuna and Freeman with odds under 10/1. A quick look at the 30-day #s shows Corbin Carroll is outplaying Acuna over the short term.
Carroll was still available at 200/1 and 100/1 at recently as two weeks ago and has seemingly seen his odds cut almost every day. A rookie winning MVP has only happened twice in MLB history, Red Sox outfielder Fred Lynn did it in 1975 and Ichiro Suzuki did it more recently on the Mariners in 2001; although coming over from Japan as an already established star, he was not a true rookie.
Betts and Freeman give the Dodgers two MVP contenders, but often when you have two contenders for something you really have none. Freeman won NL Player of the Month in May. Right now, I’d expect Carroll will probably win that award in June. I don’t see Freeman or Betts outvoting Carroll right now while the Dodgers are 4.5 games back of the Diamondbacks in the NL West standings.
The other player who deserves consideration is Luis Arraez who is currently carrying a .400 batting average on June 20th on a Marlins team that is 10 games over .500 for the first time since 2012. Arraez doesn’t hit home runs, and his extra base hits aren’t comparable to the other contenders, but there’s something to be said for hitting .400. While it’s unlikely Arraez maintains a .400 batting average going forward, he’s a legitimate contender as long as he keeps hitting and the Marlins keep winning. If the Marlins threaten the Braves for the NL East and Arraez keeps his batting average close to .400, it will be interesting to see where this number goes in the second half of the season.
NL MVP is still Acuna’s award to lose at this point, but a prolonged slump or injury could allow Carroll to gain more ground and close the gap. If Arraez keeps hitting close to or above .400, he will also warrant consideration.
AL Rookie of the Year
DraftKings:
Josh Jung +180
Masataka Yoshida +265
Gunnar Henderson +400
Hunter Brown +950
Esteury Ruiz +2800
Ryan Noda +5000
FanDuel:
Josh Jung +175
Masataka Yoshida +250
Gunnar Henderson +500
Hunter Brown +1000
Ryan Noda +3500
Esteury Ruiz +5000
Last 30 Days
Jung: 34 hits, 23 runs, 7 doubles, 1 triple, 7 home runs, 17 RBIs, 18 strikeouts/9 walks, .327/.391/.615
Yoshida: 30 hits, 10 runs, 8 doubles, 1 triple, 8 home runs, 8 RBIs, 14 strikeouts/9 walks, .313/.377/.448
Henderson: 23 hits, 12 runs, 3 doubles, 6 home runs, 18 RBIs, 18 strikeouts/5 walks, .315/.359/.603
Brown: 4.75 ERA, 30.1 IP, 16 ER, 24 hits, 5 HR, 34 strikeouts/11 walks, .214 opponent batting average
Ruiz: 22 hits, 9 runs, 6 doubles, 7 RBIs, 0 home runs, 17 strikeouts/4 walks, 13 stolen bases, .220/.264/.280
Noda: 25 hits, 11 runs, 4 doubles, 3 home runs, 11 RBIs, 37 strikeouts/17 walks, .275/.394/.418
Josh Jung is the current leader for AL Rookie of the Year. Red Sox OF Masataka Yoshida is not far behind. If the Rangers win the AL West and Jung hits 30 home runs it will be hard to deny him Rookie of the Year. Yoshida being 29 and not a true rookie might hurt him with voters. Jung’s WAR currently being more than double Yoshida’s will also hurt Yoshida’s case.
Gunnar Henderson saw his odds drift out to around 25/1, only to see them return to where they were before Spring Training started. Henderson had a very poor start to the season and struggled for about the first six weeks before really breaking out recently, but he’s going to have to play even better to get into serious contention with Jung.
Hunter Brown is a pitcher, and I don’t bet on pitchers to win Rookie of the Year. Spencer Strider didn’t’ win while putting up historically good numbers. Brown has been very good, especially when you consider he was tasked with essentially filling Justin Verlander’s innings. He’s done an excellent job, but he’s not winning Rookie of the Year.
Esteury Ruiz was popular for a minute, and he could lead MLB in stolen bases as a rookie, but look at those 30-day numbers. There’s nothing in those numbers that say Rookie of the Year. Especially not on the currently second worst team in baseball. Ryan Noda, Ruiz’s teammate, might have a slightly better case, but he strikes out too much. Ruiz and Noda are dead money.
NL Rookie of the Year
DraftKings:
Corbin Carroll -500
Elly De La Cruz +700
Fanduel:
Carroll -550
De La Cruz +1000
Last 30 Days:
Carroll: 35 hits, 28 runs, 9 doubles, 2 triples, 10 home runs, 24 RBIs, 20 strikeouts/10 walks, 8 stolen bases, .337/.410/.750
De La Cruz: 13 hits, 11 runs, 2 doubles, 1 triple, 1 home run, 5 RBIs, 18 strikeouts/6 walks, 6 stolen bases, .271/.352/.417
It would take an injury or an extremely prolonged slump for anyone to catch Corbin Carroll, Elly De La Cruz included. The Reds are 11-2 since calling up Elly, and he’s not playing bad by any means, but the lead Carroll has already is practically insurmountable. Barring injury, Carroll not only has this locked up, but he’s an MVP contender.
I previously bet Elly De La Cruz at 55/1 and Jordan Walker at 14/1 down to 8/1. The main risk was always fading Corbin Carroll. Any other year it would probably be a different conversation, but when you have a guy like Carroll putting up MVP numbers, there isn’t much you can do but watch.
Division Races
AL Central
Guardians +270 at FanDuel
The Guardians are only two games back of the Twins right now, and they are really the only other team in the AL Central that can contend with the Twins. Nothing I’ve seen from the Twins so far makes me think they are going to really pull away from the Guardians.
The Guardians’ anemic offense aside, the starting pitching and bullpen are still strong, and I am excited to see Gavin Williams make his debut on Wednesday. Williams was a first-round pick in the 2021 draft out of East Carolina. He gets to face the A’s in his first start which is about as favorable a matchup as you can have for your MLB debut.
NL Central
DraftKings: Reds to make the playoffs +370
The Brewers have been just average this season although fortunately for them so has the rest of their division leaving them currently only half a game behind the Cincinnati Reds for first place. Unfortunately for them after finishing up against the Diamondbacks series the Brewers go on the road for a three-city, 10-game, 10-day road trip, followed by seven more home games without a day off before the All-Star Break.
We will get a pretty good idea of what type of team the Brewers really are in the next couple of weeks. After finishing this series against the Diamondbacks, they will go on the road for 10 days starting Friday with games in Cleveland, New York (Mets) and Pittsburgh before finishing up with seven games at home against the Cubs and Reds with no days off. 17 games in 17 days.
The Reds similarly play 16 games in 17 days. Although they don’t have any unfavorable road trips like the Brewers, they will potentially get to finish the first half of the season with three games in Milwaukee against a tired Brewers team that hasn’t had an off day in two weeks at that point. The Cubs and Cardinals are going to London for a weekend which kind of screws up their schedules a bit but neither is saddled with a three-city, 10-day road trip like the Brewers are. The Pirates finish the first half at the Dodgers and Diamondbacks.
Elly De La Cruz might have been called up too late to catch Corbin Carroll For NL Rookie of the Year, but the Reds are very live to make the playoffs and potentially win the NL Central.
