ATS Report for Monday, July 10, on MLB's Home Run Derby won by Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

By Dave Tuley  ( senior reporter) 

July 10, 2023 10:25 PM


Monday Betting Recaps

Monday was a pretty quiet day in the sportsbooks, as it usually is every year on the first day of the MLB All-Star Break.

The biggest betting event was actually the annual Home Run Derby with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. following in his dad’s footsteps to become the first father-son combo to win the prestigious event.

Let’s get to our regular nightly recaps in more detail. We’ll also include the updated MLB season betting stats through the All-Star Break. ("Tuley's Takes" programming note: my daily "Best Bets" column is taking a few days off until the MLB regular season resumes on Friday, snapping a 357-day streak as our last "day off" – at least from that column – was July 17, 2022.)  

MLB Home Run Derby: Vladiimir Guerrero Jr. outslugged Randy Arozarena 25-23 in the finale to win Monday night’s Home Run Derby in Seattle. The ViewFromVegas is he closed as the +400 second choice before the contest and was the +150 underdog in the finale. The "total HRs by winner" prop went Over 58.5 as Guerrero hit 72 total home runs (26+21+25).


More Home Run Derby: In the first round, favorites and underdogs split 2-2: Randy Arozarena (+130) upset Adolis Garcia 24-17, Luis Robert Jr. (-250) beat Adley Rutschman 28-27, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (-220) beat Mookie Betts 26-11 and Julio Rodriguez (+130) upset Pete Alonso 41-21.

More MLB (ICYMI): At the All-Star Break, favorites lead 771-553 on the season with 22 games closing pick-'em. Home teams lead 696-646 with 4 neutral-site games. Unders improved their slim lead to 649-638-58 with 1 no-action (thanks to 9-3-1 on Thursday and 9-4-1 Sunday after being exactly .500 after Wednesday’s games).

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A Numbers Game: Be careful betting baseball games right now, if they don’t involve teams still trying to make the playoffs. Teams that have clinched or teams that are completely out of it will be approaching games far differently. View more tips.

Ian Cameron: USC at Colorado - OVER (73.5). View more picks.