Sunday MLB Sharp Report

April 9, 2023 01:09 AM

Today the weekend wraps up with 15 MLB games. You can track the latest odds and percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits page. In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Sunday's MLB action...


1:40 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners (-130, 8) at Cleveland Guardians

The Mariners (4-5) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 5-3 as +110 road dogs and winning again on Saturday 3-2 as +125 road dogs. In this afternoon's series finale, Seattle hands the ball to George Kirby (0-1, 8.31) and Cleveland (5-4) counters with fellow righty Zach Plesac (0-0, 54.00 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick'em, with both sides listed at -110. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to take. However, despite this split ticket count we've seen Seattle move from -110 to -130. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the bets are even. So we know this move was caused by smart money getting down on Seattle to complete the sweep. Favorites with 10-cents of steam in their direction or more are 31-22 (59%) this season. The total is 8. Currently 45% of bets but 82% of money is taking the under, signaling a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. The forecast calls for low 50s with 5-10 MPH winds blowing in from center. 


2:10 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers (-150, 9) 

These NL Central rivals have split the first two games of the series. The Brewers (6-2) won the opener 4-0, cashing as -150 home favorites. Then the Cardinals (3-5) bounced back with a 6-0 win yesterday, cruising as -160 road favorites. In this afternoon's rubber match, St. Louis starts righty Jake Woodford (0-1, 12.46 ERA) and Milwaukee taps fellow righty Freddy Peralta (1-0, 0.00 ERA). This line opened with the Brewers listed as a -140 home favorite and the Cardinals a +130 road dog. Pros have laid the chalk with Milwaukee, steaming the Brew Crew up from -140 to -150. Currently 68% of bets and 89% of money is backing Milwaukee, signaling a sharp bet discrepancy in their favor. Pros have also leaned under, as the total is 9 with the under juiced to -115. The forecast calls for low 60s with 10 MPH winds blowing in from right center. 

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