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MLB situational trends offer profits

By Steve Makinen  (VSiN.com) 

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The first call of “Play ball!” for the 2021 season comes Thursday, and if all goes well, we’ll be treated to a full season of baseball normalcy. For as grateful as many bettors were that we at least got a 60-game slate last summer, an awful lot was missing for the astute MLB handicapper. The shortened schedule took away a lot of advantages that successful bettors enjoy in a long season. Most of these pros get their edge by enduring six months of ups and downs. 

I dug through my MLB database from recent years and put together a library of sorts for baseball enthusiasts to start the 2021 campaign, pointing out some of the best and worst situational spots each team has compiled. Knowing teams’ tendencies can take out a lot of the day-to-day guesswork and strategy chasing that can devour less avid handicappers over the long haul. All these records are based on the last three regular seasons and do not include playoffs.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Better home or road?

1. Road: 92-100 (47.9%), + 0.95 units, ROI = + 0.5%

2. Home: 100-92 (52.1%), -12.25 units, ROI = -6.4%

Better day or night?

1. Night: 137-127 (51.9%), + 2.85 units, ROI = + 1.1%

2. Day: 55-65 (45.8%), -14.15 units, ROI = -11.8%

Best/worst day of the week?

1. Tuesday: 36-23 (61.0%), + 16.2 units, ROI = + 27.5%

7. Sunday: 24-39 (38.1%), -19.5 units, ROI = -31.0%

Better after a win or loss?

1. After win: 100-90 (52.6%), + 1.05 units, ROI = + 0.6%

2. After loss: 91-100 (47.6%), -11.35 units, ROI = -5.9%

Top opponent matchup type?

1. Interleague: 35-25 (58.3%), + 12.05 units, ROI = + 20.1%

2. League: 66-66 (50.0%), -5.7 units, ROI = -4.3%

3. Division: 91-101 (47.4%), -17.65 units, ROI = -9.2%

Best/worst game of series?

1. Opening game: 70-54 (56.5%), + 11.9 units, ROI = + 9.6%

2. Middle game(s): 66-71 (48.2%), -7.7 units, ROI = -5.6%

3. Series finale: 56-67 (45.5%), -15.5 units, ROI = -12.6%

Best/worst betting line scenario?

1. as home underdog: 31-25 (55.4%), + 17.4 units, ROI = + 31.1%

4. as home favorite (or pick-’em): 69-67 (50.7%), -29.65 units, ROI = -21.8%

Best/worst divisional opponent?

1. Division: San Diego: 28-20 (58.3%), + 5.3 units, ROI = + 11.0%

4. Division: San Francisco: 20-28 (41.7%), -16.05 units, ROI = -33.4%

Best/worst league opponent?

1. League: Pittsburgh: 12-2 (85.7%), + 9.35 units, ROI = + 66.8%

10. League: Milwaukee: 3-10 (23.1%), -8.35 units, ROI = -64.2%

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