Thursday MLB Sharp Report

April 6, 2023 12:20 AM


Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.

You can also track the VSiN Betting Splits for every game. 

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday's MLB action...


2:10 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays (-205, 8.5) at Kansas City Royals

The Blue Jays (3-3) have taken two of the first three games in this four-game series. Toronto is coming off a 3-0 win on Wednesday, taking care of business as -195 road favorites. In this afternoon's series finale, the Jays tap righty Kevin Gausman (0-1, 0.00 ERA) and the Royals (1-5) rebuttal with fellow righty Jordan Lyles (0-1, 1.69 ERA). This line opened with Toronto listed as a -180 road favorite and Kansas City a +155 home dog. Sharps seem to be thinking "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" and have steamed the Jays up from -180 to -205. Road favorites who made the playoffs the previous season against teams who did not are 274-169 (62%) since 2022. The Jays hold a significant edge at the plate, hitting .292 compared to .155 for the Royals. Toronto also has the more rested bullpen, as their pen has pitched 8.1 innings over the last 3 games compared to 11 innings over the last 3 games for Kansas City. Pros are also leaning under, as the total is 8.5 with the under juiced to -120. Some shops are inching down to 8. The forecast calls for mid 50s with 5 MPH winds blowing in from center. Currently 48% of bets but 61% of money is on the under, a sharp contrarian discrepancy. 


4:10 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies (-150, 11)

The Nationals (1-5) just got swept by the Rays, falling 7-2 yesterday as +225 home dogs. Similarly, the Rockies (2-4) have dropped four straight and just dropped a two-game series to the Dodgers, losing 5-2 on Tuesday as +205 road dogs. In today's series opener, Washington hands the ball to righty Josiah Gray (0-1, 9.00 ERA) and Colorado counters with lefty Kyle Freeland (1-0, 0.00 ERA). This line opened with the Rockies listed as a -135 home favorite and the Nats a +120 home dog. Pros have laid the chalk with Colorado, steaming the Rockies up from -135 to -150. The Rockies hold a rest vs tired advantage, as Colorado was off yesterday while the Nats played. Favorites coming off a day off against teams who played the previous day are 282-178 (61%) since 2018. This is also the home opener for the Rockies. Colorado went 41-40 at home last season while Washington went 29-52 on the road. Sharps hit the over as soon as the line opened, raising the total from 10.5 to 11. When the total stays the same or rises, the over is 36-23 (61%) this season. Currently 62% of bets but 88% of money is on the over, a sharp bet discrepancy. 

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