When the 2019 MLB postseason reaches the LCS round, the stakes go up. Down to just four remaining teams in the hunt for the World Series title, here are the betting trends and systems that have developed in recent years that you’ll want to put to use in the next week-and-a half. This series will continue next week as I bring the key World Series betting information. Combined with our knowledge of the specific matchups, this info should help us cash some tickets this October.
Championship Series Round
LCS System #1
DAY GAMES have been a tremendous advantage to HOME TEAMS in LCS play, as they are 34-9 in such games since ’04 (79.1%, 22.7 Units, 52.7% R.O.I., Grade 80) Analysis: To put this record in perspective, home teams in LCS night games in that span have gone 72-55 (56.7%) for 4.6 units, a R.O.I. of just 3.6%. So while both situations suggest home field advantage is important in LCS play, it is greatly enhanced in day games.
LCS System #2
LCS HOME TEAMS that are even or up in a series are 25-10 since 2013 (71.4%, 15.35 Units, 43.8% R.O.I., Grade 65)
Analysis: Contrast this system to the record of home teams that are down in a series
(15-13, -2.4 units) in that same time span and you have the foundation for fading or backing home teams in this round .
LCS System #3
LCS home field advantage has meant most late & early in series’ lately. Since ’14, LCS HOME TEAMS in Games 1 & 2 are 14-3 (82.3%, 11.9 Units, 70% R.O.I., Grade 75)
and since ’07, LCS HOME TEAMS in Games
6 & 7 are 15-4 (78.9%, 10.6 Units, 55.8% R.O.I., Grade 65)
Analysis: Naturally, the home teams in the early & late series games described are the teams with home field advantage in the series, and in all likelihood the better teams. Not surprisingly, when the stakes are highest the better teams have taken full advantage of home field.
LCS System #4
LCS HUGE HOME FAVORITES of -190 or more are just 13-10 since ’98 (56.5%, -9.2 Units, -40% R.O.I., Grade 62)
Analysis: It is dangerous to lay too much with home teams at this stage. After all, their foes are also playoff-capable teams themselves, and in fact, probably motivated by the thought of being such a prohibitive underdog.
LCS System #5
LCS round HOME UNDERDOGS have come alive since the 2003 season, going 30-16! (65.2%, 18.35 Units, 39.9% R.O.I., Grade 65) Analysis: In the late 90’s and early 2000’s, teams like the Yankees & Braves were consistently dominating teams in the LCS round, particularly on the road. Since 2003 however, the tables have turned as there haven’t been any consistently dominant teams like that. Home underdog have proven to be a great value as a result.
LCS System #6
LCS round HOME TEAMS that were shutout in the prior LCS game are on an 11-3 run (78.6%, 6.8 Units, 48.6% R.O.I., Grade 59)
Analysis: This is an interesting system, if for no other reason that in the LDS round it was the opposite. In the LCS, don’t shy away from home teams that were just shut out by opposing pitching staffs, they tend to bounce back very well.
LCS System #7
LCS round HOME TEAMS that scored 7 or more runs in the prior game are just 8-11 since ‘07 (42.1%, -6.5 Units, -34.2% R.O.I., Grade 54)
Analysis: This is another system that directly contradicts our findings from the LDS round. It seems that pitching staffs are better able to adjust as we climb deeper into the postseason. Don’t make the mistake of overreacting to one game.
LCS System #8
LCS round HOME TEAMS that allowed 8 or more runs in the prior game have struggled with a record of 13-17 over the L20 seasons (43.3%, -9.1 Units, -30.3% R.O.I., Grade 59)
Analysis: As you’ll see in this system and the next one, pitching has been the determining factor in setting the tone for future games in the LCS. Teams that give up a lot of runs tend to struggle the next time out.
LCS System #9
LCS round HOME TEAMS that allowed 1 or fewer runs in the prior game are on an incredible 21-3 surge since ’07. (87.5%, 17.45 Units, 72.7% R.O.I., Grade 80) Analysis: Again, pitching has set the tone for future LCS games. Home teams coming off dominant pitching outings in the prior game have rolled.
LCS System #10
LCS round HOME TEAMS that hit 3 or more home runs in the prior game are just 4-10 since ‘98 (28.6%, -7.75 Units, -55.4% R.O.I., Grade 62)
Analysis: With the massive home runs numbers we have seen this season, it’s a good bet that this comes up at least once in 2019. While only 14 LCS home teams have hit 3 or more HR’s in the prior game in the L21 years, it’s safe to say they have not answered the bell for the next outing.