MLB favorites dominating, plus Sunday MLB Sharp Report

July 4, 2021 05:48 AM

Happy 4th of July! For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates, be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Brady Kannon and myself this morning LIVE from 10 a.m. ET to noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN's Will Hill and check in with our good friend Thomas Gable at the Borgata in Atlantic City.

MLB underdogs got off to a hot start this year. In April and May, dogs went 352-446 (44%) but produced roughly + 20 units due to the plus money payouts. But ever since the weather started heating up, a switch has been flipped and favorites have roared back with a vengeance. Since June 1st, favorites have gone 282-152 (65%) winning roughly + 40 units. 

We've seen home favorites perform especially well, going 490-310 (61%) on the season. Road favorites have gone just 238-194 (55%). The best spot has been to target non-division home favorites (283-165, 63.2%). This way you can take advantage of the "better" team with their home crowd behind them but also avoid the "divisional dog" angle. Familiarity levels the playing field and benefits the underdog. The lack of familiarity benefits the favorite. So if the non-division home favorite is playing an opponent they don't see that often, it provides an additional edge. 

Now let's discuss where the money is flowing for several Sunday MLB matchups today.

1:10 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (42-41) at Cincinnati Reds (42-40)

These NL Central rivals are trending in opposite directions. The Cubs have dropped the first two games of this series and have now lost eight straight games. Meanwhile, the Reds have now won three straight. In this afternoon's series finale, Chicago sends out righty Kyle Hendricks (10-4, 3.98 ERA) and Cincinnati counters with lefty Wade Miley (6-4, 3.09 ERA). This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a short -120 home favorite and Chicago a + 110 road dog. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to back. However, despite these even splits, we've seen the Reds fall slightly from -120 to -115. This signals some sharp reverse line movement buying low on the Cubs (+ 110 to + 105). Chicago has value as a divisional dog and a road with a high total (9.5). The Cubs have done well against lefties this season, going 13-9. 

3:10 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (41-43) at Colorado Rockies (36-48)

The Rockies have taken two of the first three games in this series, including a 3-2 win on Saturday as a -105 home pick'em. In today's series finale, the Cardinals start righty Carlos Martinez (4-9, 6.38 ERA) and the Rockies give the ball to righty German Marquez (7-6, 3.62 ERA). This line opened with Colorado listed as a -140 home favorite and St. Louis a + 130 road dog. The public is all over the Cardinals at plus money against a team with an inferior record. But pros are fading the trendy dog and backing the contrarian favorite Rockies, steaming Colorado up from -140 to -150. Non-division home favorites are 283-165 (63%) this season. Colorado has gone an impressive 30-17 at home this season. St. Louis is just 18-25 on the road. The Rockies are 11-4 as a favorite. The Cardinals are 16-25 as a dog. Marquez has been fantastic in the month of June (4-1, 2.41 ERA). Marquez has only given up one run combined over his previous three starts. On the flip side, Martinez is 1-5 with a 10.87 ERA in the month of June. 

4:07 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (27-56) at Los Angeles Angels (41-41)

The Angels are 2-0 so far in this series, beating the Orioles 8-7 as -170 home favorites in the opener and winning against last night 4-1 as -200 home favorites. In this afternoon's series finale, Baltimore starts righty Thomas Eshelman (0-1, 6.57 ERA) and Los Angeles counters with lefty Patrick Sandoval (2-2, 3.89 ERA). This line opened with the Angels listed as a -200 home favorite and Baltimore a + 180 road dog. Sharps aren't scared off by this big number and have gotten down on the Angels to complete the sweep, driving Los Angeles up from -200 to -215. Big favorites -200 or more coming off a win are 62-21 (75%) this season. Non-division home teams receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 158-86 (65%). Baltimore is just 15-30 on the road this season, 25-48 as a dog and 9-18 against lefties. The Angels are 23-19 at home and 24-19 as a favorite. Los Angeles will lean on their bats in this one. The Angels are hitting .255, which ranks 4th-best in MLB. The Orioles are batting .238, which ranks 14th.

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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