MLB extreme stats offer next-game betting chances

August 18, 2022 06:10 AM
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Over the course of a six-month, 162-game Major League Baseball schedule, a lot of extreme statistical performances can arise for each team. Whether it be the number of runs they score in a given game, the hits or home runs they produce or the extremes that their pitching staffs can generate, these oddities just happen, and of course, for some teams more than others. Do these rare happenings have any carryover effect for the follow-up game? That’s something I sought to figure out as I analyzed extreme betting systems in MLB. 

Take a look at these seven betting concepts I was able to uncover after analyzing my MLB database over the last five seasons or so, specifically from the beginning of the 2018 season through Aug. 10 of this year. 

1. Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound against that same opponent

Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last four-plus seasons, going 250-218 (53.4%) for + 45.66 units of profit. This represents a return on investment of 9.7%. In football, it’s called any given Sunday. In baseball, it could be termed any given day. One blowout loss hasn’t amounted to a whole lot for home teams as they are typically able to rebound, outscoring the opponents 4.64-4.49 on average in this “revenge” spot.

2. “9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game

Expanding a bit on the previous item, the number “9” in terms of runs scored in a game has proven to be a strong indicator for being able to profitably fade a team in the next game. It doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if it scored nine runs in the previous contest, it is posting a winning record at 1076-1014 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -146.18 units. This represents an ROI of -7.0%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting. 

3. Road teams that didn’t score well in the last game and home teams that did are a bad bet in the next outing

You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing both on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game and home teams that scored five runs or more. Both have proven to be bankroll-busting options over the last four-plus seasons. These road teams are just 1313-1706 (43.5%) for -165.05 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2018 season. In that same time frame, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2,381-2,077 (53.4%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -293.85 units and an ROI of -6.6%. These aren’t exactly “extreme” run totals, but they have proven to be reliably predictive indicators. 

4. Home team hitting slumps don’t last long

MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 481-396 (54.8%) record in the follow-up game since the start of the 2019 season. This has resulted in a profit of 49.04 units for backers and an ROI of 5.6%. Similarly, teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 235-177 (57%) record in the next game when at home in that same time span. The profit there is + 46.07 units, for an ROI of 11.2%. These are examples of positive fundamental concepts in baseball that show teams’ hitters typically bounce back well at home, where they are more familiar with the conditions. 

5. Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites

Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last five seasons, going 225-103 (68.6%) for + 47.58 units and an ROI of 14.5%. There is obviously a lot of substance to this one in that this team is playing at home, it is hitting well and the experts expect these teams to win. 

6. Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts

Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 191-140 (57.7%) for + 55.5 units and an ROI of 16.8% since the start of the 2018 season. This is a good example of why baseball bettors need to be able to flush unusual results from their memories and not expect them to continue, particularly when the team is backed by the stability of playing at home. 

7. Road favorites off a huge divisional loss are hidden gems 

Logic would say that teams playing on the road after a double-digit blowout loss to a division rival would be a risky bet. However, oddsmakers have done bettors a solid by projecting a bounce-back in favoring these teams against the circumstances. As a result, these road favorites have gone 18-9 (66.7%) for + 7 units and an ROI of 25.9%. This winning percentage is far higher than the average road favorite performance, indicating that the blowout divisional loss does provide some additional motivation.

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