MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Wenesday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. NYY - Gerrit Cole (No. 3 out of 350)

2. LAD - Max Scherzer (No. 4)

3. PHI - Aaron Nola (No. 7)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. LAA - Janson Junk (No. 328 out of 350)

2. WSH - Paolo Espino (No. 274)

3. TEX - Taylor Hearn (No. 233)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. SD at LAD - Tripp Gibson (No. 8 out of 111)

2. OAK at SEA - Adam Hamari (No. 15)

3. NYY at TOR - Gabe Morales (No. 24)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. CHC at PIT - Mark Wegner (No. 3 out of 111)

2. BOS at BAL - John Libka (No. 11)

3. CLE at KC - Lance Barksdale (No. 34)

Today's Hottest Games

1. MIL at STL (81 degrees)

2. PHI at ATL (79 degrees)

3. DET at MIN (78 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. OAK at SEA (56 degrees)

2. NYY at TOR (60 degrees)

3. ARI at SF (60 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 6.03 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -125

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 5.88 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -120

·  Minnesota Twins

Projected: 5.70 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -125

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.28 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 120

·  Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected: 3.36 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -130

·  Cincinnati Reds

Projected: 3.62 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 110

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Nationals at Rockies

Projected: 11.40 runs

·  Tigers at Twins

Projected: 10.29 runs

·  Red Sox at Orioles

Projected: 10.04 runs

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Marlins at Mets

Projected: 7.26 runs

·  Athletics at Mariners

Projected: 7.62 runs

·  D-Backs at Giants

Projected: 7.66 runs

GAMES OF THE DAY

Baltimore Orioles (51-106) vs. Boston Red Sox (88-69)

O/U: | BAL | BOS

Zac Lowther (THE BAT's No. 192 SP) vs. Nathan Eovaldi (THE BAT's No. 31 SP)

John Libka (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 11 in MLB)

Oriole Park at Camden Yards (No. 4 Runs | No. 7 HR | No. 24 K)

66 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)

5 mph in from LF (No. 7 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Nathan Eovaldi's slider usage (14 percent in 2021, 0 percent in 2020) has increased 14 percent this season

·  Nathan Eovaldi is throwing a cutter 18 percent less often this season (13 percent usage) than he did last season (31 percent usage)

·  Nathan Eovaldi has a reverse platoon split, making him less effective against same-handed hitters, which he's projected to face eight of today

·  Despite a 2.87 FIP, Nathan Eovaldi's unlucky ERA has been 1.01 points worse at 3.88

·  The Orioles have four players (Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander, Trey Mancini, Pedro Severino) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB

·  THE BAT X projects the Red Sox (No. 1 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.333 wOBA) thus far in 2021

·  The Red Sox offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 1 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel percent in the 75th percentile or better this year (J.D. Martinez, Rafael Devers, Hunter Renfroe, Bobby Dalbec, Kyle Schwarber)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Moneyline has the most lopsided action today with 86 percent of the bet tickets and 80 percent of the cash on the Red Sox

·  This game has the most lopsided Run Line today as 81 percent of the bet tickets and 66 percent of the cash is on the Red Sox

·  This season the Red Sox Moneyline has been their most profitable market and is 86-64 resulting in + 7.75 Units (4 percent ROI)

·  The Baltimore Orioles Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 82-69 resulting in + 4.53 Units (3 percent ROI)

·  Nathan Eovaldi's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+ 110) is the most popular prop for the game

New York Mets (75-82) vs. Miami Marlins (64-93)

O/U: | NYM | MIA

Taijuan Walker (THE BAT's No. 102 SP) vs. Elieser Hernandez (THE BAT's No. 149 SP)

Citi Field (No. 26 Runs | No. 15 HR | No. 4 K)

66 degrees (No. 4 coldest today)

7 mph in from LF (No. 4 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Thus far in 2021, Taijuan Walker's fastball (93.9 mph) has been 1.3 mph faster than it was last season

·  Taijuan Walker's sinker usage (22 percent in 2021, 12 percent in 2020) has increased 10 percent this season

·  Taijuan Walker is throwing a slider 22 percent more often this season (22 percent usage) than he did last season (0 percent usage)

·  Taijuan Walker is throwing a cutter 21 percent less often this season (0 percent usage) than he did last season (21 percent usage)

·  Elieser Hernandez's fastball (2112 rpm) has lost 153 rpm of spin this season relative to 2020

·  Elieser Hernandez has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 4.24 ERA is 1.38 points below his 5.62 FIP

·  The Mets (25.5 K percentage, via THE BAT X) have the No. 5 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  New York boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher xwOBA this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB (Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso)

·  The Marlins are the most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K percentage of 28.0 percent according to THE BAT X

·  THE BAT X views the Marlins as the No. 1 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has two-way action as 63 percent of the bet tickets are on the UNDER, but 24 percent of the cash is on the OVER

·  The New York Mets Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 82-61 resulting in + 14.40 Units (9 percent ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Miami Marlins has been their Team Total Under which is 80-69 generating + 2.05 Units (1 percent ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Pete Alonso's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 300/-530)

Minnesota Twins (70-87) vs. Detroit Tigers (75-82)

O/U: | MIN | DET

Michael Pineda (THE BAT's No. 168 SP) vs. Casey Mize (THE BAT's No. 154 SP)

Nestor Ceja (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 34 in MLB)

Target Field (No. 16 Runs | No. 22 HR | No. 19 K)

78 degrees (No. 3 hottest today)

7 mph in from RF (No. 3 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Casey Mize may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 50 pitches

·  So far in 2021, Casey Mize has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitchers, boasting a 3.63 ERA despite a 4.75 FIP

·  The Twins have three hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K percentage over 30 percent+ , according to THE BAT X (Mitch Garver, Miguel Sano, Jake Cave)

·  The Twins' 0.317 team wOBA makes them the No. 3 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Twins offense has the No. 5 (tie) most hitters in baseball with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or better this year (Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, Luis Arraez, Josh Donaldson)

·  The Tigers (26.0 K percentage, via THE BAT X) have the No. 4 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Tigers have three players (Niko Goodrum, Akil Baddoo, Robbie Grossman) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle percent in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The opening Run Line for the Minnesota Twins was -1.5 (+ 115), but is now -1.5 (+ 105) after it steamed 10 cents

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 71 percent of the bet tickets and 77 percent of the cash is on the Tigers

·  This season the Tigers Moneyline has been their most profitable market and is 75-77 resulting in + 26.50 Units (17 percent ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Minnesota Twins has been their Game Total Over which is 81-63 generating + 12.15 Units (7 percent ROI)

·  Josh Donaldson's Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 245/-400) is the most popular prop for the game

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